World Cup 2026 Projections

48 teams · 104 matches · June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States, Mexico & Canada · 36 of 104 matches played · updated June 21, 2026
🇪🇸 Spain 18%🇦🇷 Argentina 18%🇫🇷 France 15%🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 8%🇧🇷 Brazil 6%

Tournament odds — all 48 teams

Probability of reaching each stage. "Advance" is qualification for the round of 32 by any route (top two or one of the eight best third-placed teams). "Rtg" is the team's strength rating. Cell shading is scaled to the best team in each column.

TeamGrpRtgxPts AdvanceR16QFSFFinalChampion
1🇪🇸 SpainH21255.998%76%59%45%29%18%
2🇦🇷 ArgentinaJ20888.1>99%77%65%46%30%18%
3🇫🇷 FranceI20707.8>99%89%60%42%25%15%
4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EnglandL20328.4>99%81%50%30%16%8%
5🇧🇷 BrazilC19986.4100%61%42%24%12%6%
6🇵🇹 PortugalK19974.991%67%37%20%10%5%
7🇩🇪 GermanyE19507.9100%78%34%20%9%4%
8🇨🇴 ColombiaK19466.799%75%43%20%10%4%
9🇳🇱 NetherlandsF19546.6100%54%38%18%8%4%
10🇺🇸 USAD17958.0100%85%52%20%9%3%
11🇧🇪 BelgiumG19105.695%66%31%12%5%2%
12🇲🇽 MexicoA18748.4100%78%38%16%6%2%
13🇯🇵 JapanF18926.1100%43%26%11%5%2%
14🇳🇴 NorwayI18845.398%62%26%12%5%2%
15🇲🇦 MoroccoC18726.6100%44%27%10%4%2%
16🇨🇭 SwitzerlandB18755.3100%70%28%10%4%1%
17🇺🇾 UruguayH18803.877%28%14%6%2%0.8%
18🇭🇷 CroatiaL18954.689%39%13%6%2%0.7%
19🇸🇳 SenegalI18693.370%32%13%4%2%0.5%
20🇦🇹 AustriaJ18125.298%29%13%5%2%0.5%
21🇨🇦 CanadaB17815.4100%63%24%6%2%0.4%
22🇵🇾 ParaguayD17834.486%32%7%3%0.8%0.2%
23🇪🇨 EcuadorE18861.923%9%4%1%0.5%0.2%
24🇦🇺 AustraliaD17514.394%40%8%3%0.6%0.1%
25🇪🇬 EgyptG17194.177%32%7%2%0.4%0.1%
26🇨🇮 Ivory CoastE17195.398%26%6%2%0.4%0.1%
27🇰🇷 South KoreaA17595.197%38%9%2%0.4%0.1%
28🇩🇿 AlgeriaJ17562.957%14%4%1%0.3%0.1%
29🇮🇷 IranG17563.155%23%5%1%0.3%0.1%
30🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 ScotlandC17543.485%15%3%0.8%0.2%—
31🇸🇪 SwedenF17383.794%11%3%0.8%0.2%—
32🇨🇩 DR CongoK16572.849%10%2%0.5%0.1%—
33🇹🇷 TurkeyD18760.89%2%0.7%0.2%0.1%—
34🇨🇿 CzechiaA17321.410%3%0.7%0.1%——
35🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaH15882.541%6%1%0.2%——
36🇺🇿 UzbekistanK16761.628%5%1.0%0.2%——
37🇧🇦 BosniaB16282.955%7%2%0.2%——
38🇨🇻 Cape VerdeH15832.847%5%0.8%0.1%——
39🇯🇴 JordanJ16421.015%3%0.4%0.1%——
40🇵🇦 PanamaL17010.811%2%0.3%0.1%——
41🇬🇭 GhanaL15573.673%6%0.9%0.1%——
42🇳🇿 New ZealandG15552.229%6%0.6%0.1%——
43🇮🇶 IraqI16210.77%1%0.2%———
44🇿🇦 South AfricaA15621.715%3%0.4%———
45🇶🇦 QatarB15131.920%0.9%0.1%———
46🇨🇼 CuracaoE14671.59%0.4%————
47🇭🇹 HaitiC15290.20.6%—————
48🇹🇳 TunisiaF16480.2——————

Most likely bracket

The single most probable path through the tournament. Group order and third-place slots (FIFA's Annex C table) come from the simulations; the knockout winners are then chosen by a dynamic program that maximizes the joint probability of every game in the bracket — the globally most-likely complete bracket, not a round-by-round chain of local favorites. Percentages are each side's chance of winning that specific matchup (extra time and penalties included), using each team's rating updated for its results so far — so the bracket reflects in-tournament form, consistent with the odds board. It is a best single guess, not a forecast — the odds board above is the authoritative probability view.

Round of 32
M74 · Jun 29 · Foxborough
🇩🇪 Germany75%
🇵🇾 Paraguay25%
M77 · Jun 30 · East Rutherford
🇫🇷 France92%
🇸🇪 Sweden8%
M73 · Jun 28 · Inglewood
🇰🇷 South Korea30%
🇨🇭 Switzerland70%
M75 · Jun 29 · Guadalupe
🇳🇱 Netherlands60%
🇲🇦 Morocco40%
M83 · Jul 2 · Toronto
🇵🇹 Portugal68%
🇭🇷 Croatia32%
M84 · Jul 2 · Inglewood
🇪🇸 Spain85%
🇦🇹 Austria15%
M81 · Jul 1 · Santa Clara
🇺🇸 USA89%
🇧🇦 Bosnia11%
M82 · Jul 1 · Seattle
🇧🇪 Belgium61%
🇸🇳 Senegal39%
Round of 16
M89 · Jul 4 · Philadelphia
🇩🇪 Germany34%
🇫🇷 France66%
M90 · Jul 4 · Houston
🇨🇭 Switzerland37%
🇳🇱 Netherlands63%
M93 · Jul 6 · Arlington
🇵🇹 Portugal30%
🇪🇸 Spain70%
M94 · Jul 6 · Seattle
🇺🇸 USA54%
🇧🇪 Belgium46%
Quarter-final
M97 · Jul 9 · Foxborough
🇫🇷 France66%
🇳🇱 Netherlands34%
M98 · Jul 10 · Inglewood
🇪🇸 Spain75%
🇺🇸 USA25%
Semi-final
M101 · Jul 14 · Arlington
🇫🇷 France45%
🇪🇸 Spain55%
Final
Most-likely-path champion
🇪🇸 Spain
M104 · Jul 19 · East Rutherford
🇪🇸 Spain50%
🇦🇷 Argentina50%
Semi-final
M102 · Jul 15 · Atlanta
🇧🇷 Brazil35%
🇦🇷 Argentina65%
Quarter-final
M99 · Jul 11 · Miami Gardens
🇧🇷 Brazil66%
🇲🇽 Mexico34%
M100 · Jul 11 · Kansas City
🇦🇷 Argentina70%
🇨🇴 Colombia30%
Round of 16
M91 · Jul 5 · East Rutherford
🇧🇷 Brazil67%
🇳🇴 Norway33%
M92 · Jul 5 · Mexico City
🇲🇽 Mexico▲44%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England56%
M95 · Jul 7 · Atlanta
🇦🇷 Argentina87%
🇦🇺 Australia13%
M96 · Jul 7 · Vancouver
🇨🇦 Canada40%
🇨🇴 Colombia60%
Round of 32
M76 · Jun 29 · Houston
🇧🇷 Brazil62%
🇯🇵 Japan38%
M78 · Jun 30 · Arlington
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast29%
🇳🇴 Norway71%
M79 · Jun 30 · Mexico City
🇲🇽 Mexico82%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland18%
M80 · Jul 1 · Atlanta
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England90%
🇨🇩 DR Congo10%
M86 · Jul 3 · Miami Gardens
🇦🇷 Argentina77%
🇺🇾 Uruguay23%
M88 · Jul 3 · Arlington
🇦🇺 Australia56%
🇪🇬 Egypt44%
M85 · Jul 2 · Vancouver
🇨🇦 Canada69%
🇩🇿 Algeria31%
M87 · Jul 3 · Kansas City
🇨🇴 Colombia93%
🇬🇭 Ghana7%

▲ In a few near-coin-flip ties the most-likely overall bracket advances the head-to-head underdog (its % is below its opponent’s). That happens when the favorite, were it to advance, would itself be more likely to upset a strong team deeper in the draw and break the dominant path — so the single most-probable complete bracket routes the weaker side through instead. The percentages still show each pair’s head-to-head chance, so the advancer can show below 50%.

Third-place match (July 18, Miami Gardens): 🇫🇷 France vs 🇧🇷 Brazil — France favored at 61%.

Group projections & match predictions

Played matches show the final score (the dimmed bar is the pre-match forecast); standings sort by actual points, and all probability columns are conditioned on results so far. Standings columns: probability of winning the group, finishing second, qualifying as one of the eight best third-placed teams, and advancing by any route. Every match shows win/draw/win probabilities and the single most likely scoreline (with its probability). Bars read left-to-right as first-listed team / draw / second-listed team. Host nations get a home-Elo bump in their own country — note Mexico's group games are all in Mexico, while Group A's other three teams meet on neutral ground.

first-listed team wins draw second-listed team wins
Group A
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇲🇽 Mexico187426+38.498%2%—100%
🇰🇷 South Korea175923+05.12%82%13%97%
🇨🇿 Czechia173221-11.4—2%8%10%
🇿🇦 South Africa156221-21.7—14%2%15%
Jun 11🇲🇽 Mexicov🇿🇦 South Africa
80%
17%
2–0FT
Jun 11🇰🇷 South Koreav🇨🇿 Czechia
41%
26%
33%
2–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇿 Czechiav🇿🇦 South Africa
56%
26%
18%
1–1FT
Jun 18🇲🇽 Mexicov🇰🇷 South Korea
65%
23%
12%
1–0FT
Jun 24🇨🇿 Czechiav🇲🇽 Mexico
10%
20%
70%
0–214%
Jun 24🇿🇦 South Africav🇰🇷 South Korea
16%
26%
58%
0–114%
Group B
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇨🇦 Canada178124+65.465%35%—100%
🇨🇭 Switzerland187524+35.335%64%1%100%
🇧🇦 Bosnia162821-32.9—1%53%55%
🇶🇦 Qatar151321-61.9——20%20%
Jun 12🇨🇦 Canadav🇧🇦 Bosnia
65%
24%
10%
1–1FT
Jun 13🇶🇦 Qatarv🇨🇭 Switzerland
11%
86%
1–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇭 Switzerlandv🇧🇦 Bosnia
71%
19%
10%
4–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇦 Canadav🇶🇦 Qatar
81%
16%
6–0FT
Jun 24🇨🇭 Switzerlandv🇨🇦 Canada
35%
30%
35%
1–114%
Jun 24🇧🇦 Bosniav🇶🇦 Qatar
55%
25%
20%
1–112%
Group C
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇧🇷 Brazil199824+36.468%23%9%100%
🇲🇦 Morocco187224+16.630%70%0.4%100%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland175423+03.41%8%75%85%
🇭🇹 Haiti152920-40.2——0.6%0.6%
Jun 13🇭🇹 Haitiv🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland
13%
20%
67%
0–1FT
Jun 13🇧🇷 Brazilv🇲🇦 Morocco
51%
28%
22%
1–1FT
Jun 19🇧🇷 Brazilv🇭🇹 Haiti
93%
3–0FT
Jun 19🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotlandv🇲🇦 Morocco
19%
27%
53%
0–1FT
Jun 24🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotlandv🇧🇷 Brazil
9%
17%
74%
0–212%
Jun 24🇲🇦 Moroccov🇭🇹 Haiti
79%
16%
2–018%
Group D
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇺🇸 USA179526+58.0>99%0.3%—100%
🇦🇺 Australia175123+04.30.2%64%30%94%
🇵🇾 Paraguay178323-24.4—36%50%86%
🇹🇷 Turkey187620-30.8——9%9%
Jun 12🇺🇸 USAv🇵🇾 Paraguay
50%
27%
23%
4–1FT
Jun 13🇦🇺 Australiav🇹🇷 Turkey
23%
26%
51%
2–0FT
Jun 19🇹🇷 Turkeyv🇵🇾 Paraguay
45%
28%
27%
0–1FT
Jun 19🇺🇸 USAv🇦🇺 Australia
56%
25%
19%
2–0FT
Jun 25🇹🇷 Turkeyv🇺🇸 USA
33%
25%
42%
1–111%
Jun 25🇵🇾 Paraguayv🇦🇺 Australia
39%
32%
29%
1–114%
Group E
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇩🇪 Germany195026+77.9>99%0.2%—100%
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast171923+05.30.2%89%8%98%
🇪🇨 Ecuador188621-11.9—3%20%23%
🇨🇼 Curacao146721-61.5—7%2%9%
Jun 14🇨🇮 Ivory Coastv🇪🇨 Ecuador
18%
31%
51%
1–0FT
Jun 14🇩🇪 Germanyv🇨🇼 Curacao
94%
7–1FT
Jun 20🇩🇪 Germanyv🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
67%
22%
12%
2–1FT
Jun 20🇪🇨 Ecuadorv🇨🇼 Curacao
85%
13%
0–0FT
Jun 25🇨🇼 Curacaov🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
10%
21%
69%
0–215%
Jun 25🇪🇨 Ecuadorv🇩🇪 Germany
27%
29%
44%
1–114%
Group F
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇳🇱 Netherlands195424+46.665%35%0.2%100%
🇯🇵 Japan189224+46.132%52%16%100%
🇸🇪 Sweden173823+03.73%13%78%94%
🇹🇳 Tunisia164820-80.2————
Jun 14🇳🇱 Netherlandsv🇯🇵 Japan
43%
27%
30%
2–2FT
Jun 14🇸🇪 Swedenv🇹🇳 Tunisia
50%
26%
24%
5–1FT
Jun 20🇳🇱 Netherlandsv🇸🇪 Sweden
72%
17%
12%
5–1FT
Jun 20🇹🇳 Tunisiav🇯🇵 Japan
10%
23%
68%
0–4FT
Jun 25🇯🇵 Japanv🇸🇪 Sweden
62%
22%
17%
1–110%
Jun 25🇹🇳 Tunisiav🇳🇱 Netherlands
17%
77%
0–216%
Group G
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇮🇷 Iran175611+03.114%22%18%55%
🇳🇿 New Zealand155511+02.24%12%13%29%
🇧🇪 Belgium191011+05.665%23%8%95%
🇪🇬 Egypt171911+04.117%43%17%77%
Jun 15🇮🇷 Iranv🇳🇿 New Zealand
60%
24%
16%
2–2FT
Jun 15🇧🇪 Belgiumv🇪🇬 Egypt
61%
25%
14%
1–1FT
Jun 21🇧🇪 Belgiumv🇮🇷 Iran
62%
22%
16%
1–111%
Jun 21🇳🇿 New Zealandv🇪🇬 Egypt
20%
29%
52%
0–114%
Jun 26🇪🇬 Egyptv🇮🇷 Iran
30%
31%
38%
1–114%
Jun 26🇳🇿 New Zealandv🇧🇪 Belgium
13%
84%
0–216%
Group H
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇺🇾 Uruguay188011+03.819%42%17%77%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia158811+02.53%16%22%41%
🇪🇸 Spain212511+05.976%18%5%98%
🇨🇻 Cape Verde158311+02.83%24%20%47%
Jun 15🇸🇦 Saudi Arabiav🇺🇾 Uruguay
26%
66%
1–1FT
Jun 15🇪🇸 Spainv🇨🇻 Cape Verde
93%
0–0FT
Jun 21🇺🇾 Uruguayv🇨🇻 Cape Verde
70%
22%
1–020%
Jun 21🇪🇸 Spainv🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
90%
9%
2–020%
Jun 26🇨🇻 Cape Verdev🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
31%
33%
36%
1–115%
Jun 26🇺🇾 Uruguayv🇪🇸 Spain
11%
23%
65%
0–115%
Group I
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇳🇴 Norway188413+35.322%52%25%98%
🇫🇷 France207013+27.877%21%1%>99%
🇸🇳 Senegal186910-23.30.9%26%43%70%
🇮🇶 Iraq162110-30.7—0.5%7%7%
Jun 16🇫🇷 Francev🇸🇳 Senegal
63%
23%
14%
3–1FT
Jun 16🇮🇶 Iraqv🇳🇴 Norway
9%
19%
72%
1–4FT
Jun 22🇳🇴 Norwayv🇸🇳 Senegal
41%
26%
33%
1–112%
Jun 22🇫🇷 Francev🇮🇶 Iraq
86%
12%
2–022%
Jun 26🇳🇴 Norwayv🇫🇷 France
16%
20%
64%
1–210%
Jun 26🇸🇳 Senegalv🇮🇶 Iraq
64%
25%
11%
1–017%
Group J
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇦🇷 Argentina208813+38.189%11%0.2%>99%
🇦🇹 Austria181213+25.211%67%20%98%
🇯🇴 Jordan164210-21.0—0.9%14%15%
🇩🇿 Algeria175610-32.90.3%21%36%57%
Jun 16🇦🇷 Argentinav🇩🇿 Algeria
78%
17%
3–0FT
Jun 16🇦🇹 Austriav🇯🇴 Jordan
64%
22%
14%
3–1FT
Jun 22🇦🇷 Argentinav🇦🇹 Austria
70%
21%
9%
2–016%
Jun 22🇯🇴 Jordanv🇩🇿 Algeria
21%
25%
54%
1–112%
Jun 27🇩🇿 Algeriav🇦🇹 Austria
27%
28%
45%
1–113%
Jun 27🇯🇴 Jordanv🇦🇷 Argentina
9%
90%
0–220%
Group K
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🇨🇴 Colombia194613+26.761%31%7%99%
🇵🇹 Portugal199711+04.936%46%10%91%
🇨🇩 DR Congo165711+02.83%16%30%49%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan167610-21.60.4%7%21%28%
Jun 17🇵🇹 Portugalv🇨🇩 DR Congo
79%
17%
1–1FT
Jun 17🇺🇿 Uzbekistanv🇨🇴 Colombia
20%
71%
1–3FT
Jun 23🇵🇹 Portugalv🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
78%
17%
2–017%
Jun 23🇨🇴 Colombiav🇨🇩 DR Congo
72%
20%
2–017%
Jun 27🇨🇴 Colombiav🇵🇹 Portugal
31%
25%
44%
1–111%
Jun 27🇨🇩 DR Congov🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
31%
35%
34%
0–018%
Group L
TeamRtgPPtsGDxPts1st2nd 3rd qAdv
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England203213+28.497%2%0.2%>99%
🇬🇭 Ghana155713+13.60.8%18%54%73%
🇵🇦 Panama170110-10.80.1%3%7%11%
🇭🇷 Croatia189510-24.62%76%11%89%
Jun 17🇬🇭 Ghanav🇵🇦 Panama
22%
26%
52%
1–0FT
Jun 17🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Englandv🇭🇷 Croatia
55%
25%
20%
4–2FT
Jun 23🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Englandv🇬🇭 Ghana
87%
11%
2–022%
Jun 23🇵🇦 Panamav🇭🇷 Croatia
13%
20%
67%
0–211%
Jun 27🇵🇦 Panamav🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
15%
80%
0–217%
Jun 27🇭🇷 Croatiav🇬🇭 Ghana
79%
16%
2–016%

Group-stage games to watch

Ranked by a blend of combined team strength and how evenly matched the model rates the tie.

DateFixtureWin / draw / win Why watch
1Jun 27🇨🇴 Colombia v 🇵🇹 Portugal
31%
25%
44%
Two of the tournament's strongest sides · Hard Rock Stadium
2Jun 25🇪🇨 Ecuador v 🇩🇪 Germany
27%
29%
44%
High stakes in Group E · MetLife Stadium
3Jun 22🇳🇴 Norway v 🇸🇳 Senegal
41%
26%
33%
Closest matchup of the group phase · MetLife Stadium
4Jun 24🇨🇭 Switzerland v 🇨🇦 Canada
35%
30%
35%
Probable group decider — top spot in Group B on the line · BC Place
5Jun 25🇹🇷 Turkey v 🇺🇸 USA
33%
25%
42%
Closest matchup of the group phase · SoFi Stadium
6Jun 26🇺🇾 Uruguay v 🇪🇸 Spain
11%
23%
65%
Two of the tournament's strongest sides · Estadio Akron
7Jun 26🇳🇴 Norway v 🇫🇷 France
16%
20%
64%
Two of the tournament's strongest sides · Gillette Stadium
8Jun 25🇵🇾 Paraguay v 🇦🇺 Australia
39%
32%
29%
Closest matchup of the group phase · Levi's Stadium

Upset watch

The likeliest group-stage shocks: underdogs giving away at least 140 points of venue-adjusted blended rating (host bonus included), ranked by their win probability.

DateUnderdogFavorite Elo gapUpset %
1Jun 21🇳🇿 New Zealand🇪🇬 Egypt16420%
2Jun 25🇸🇪 Sweden🇯🇵 Japan15317%
3Jun 21🇮🇷 Iran🇧🇪 Belgium15416%
4Jun 26🇳🇴 Norway🇫🇷 France18616%
5Jun 24🇿🇦 South Africa🇰🇷 South Korea19716%
6Jun 23🇵🇦 Panama🇭🇷 Croatia19413%

Dark horses

Best semi-final odds among teams outside the blended-rating top ten.

🇺🇸 USA
Group D · Rtg 1795 · FIFA #17
Semi-final20%
Final9%
Champion3%
🇲🇽 Mexico
Group A · Rtg 1874 · FIFA #14
Semi-final16%
Final6%
Champion2%
🇳🇴 Norway
Group I · Rtg 1884 · FIFA #31
Semi-final12%
Final5%
Champion2%
🇯🇵 Japan
Group F · Rtg 1892 · FIFA #18
Semi-final11%
Final5%
Champion2%
🇲🇦 Morocco
Group C · Rtg 1872 · FIFA #7
Semi-final10%
Final4%
Champion2%

Most likely finals

Pairing (July 19, MetLife Stadium)Probability
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇪🇸 Spain8%
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇫🇷 France6%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v 🇪🇸 Spain4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v 🇫🇷 France3%
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇩🇪 Germany3%
🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇪🇸 Spain3%
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇺🇸 USA2%
🇧🇷 Brazil v 🇫🇷 France2%
premprojections.com · updated June 21, 2026