Premier League 2025-26

339 matches played, 41 remaining · updated June 21, 2026

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next 1 gameweek. Bar shows home win / draw / away win probabilities; xG columns are the expected goals per side; likely score is the most probable scoreline within the most likely outcome bucket (percentage in parens is that scoreline's joint probability). Each gameweek’s biggest fixture — picked by combined race stakes — is featured beneath its schedule.

Gameweek 35May 1 – May 410 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
May 1	Leeds United	vs	Burnley	61% 21% 18%	2.19 – 1.11	2–1(10%)
May 2	Arsenal	vs	Fulham	70% 20% 10%	2.09 – 0.66	2–0(14%)
May 2	Brentford	vs	West Ham	54% 25% 21%	1.77 – 1.03	1–0(10%)
May 2	Newcastle United	vs	Brighton	37% 26% 37%	1.52 – 1.54	1–2(8%)
May 2	Wolverhampton Wanderers	vs	Sunderland	33% 30% 37%	1.15 – 1.23	0–1(10%)
May 3	Aston Villa	vs	Tottenham	42% 28% 30%	1.45 – 1.18	1–0(9%)
May 3	Bournemouth	vs	Crystal Palace	39% 29% 32%	1.30 – 1.16	1–0(10%)
May 3	Manchester United	vs	Liverpool	48% 24% 27%	1.85 – 1.36	2–1(9%)
May 4	Chelsea	vs	Nottingham Forest	36% 28% 36%	1.33 – 1.32	1–0(8%)
May 4	Everton	vs	Manchester City	24% 28% 48%	1.02 – 1.54	0–1(11%)

Featured match

Brentford host West Ham, with the Hammers scrapping to stay up at a 39% relegation risk while the hosts sit comfortably mid-table. The sides last met on October 20th at the London Stadium, with a result of West Ham 0–2 Brentford. The model leans toward the Bees (54% home win, 25% draw, 21% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.

Gameweek 35 · 2026-05-02

Brentford

9th48 ptsxG 1.77

LDDDD

West Ham

17th36 ptsxG 1.03

WDWLD

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	7.0%	5.4%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.9%	12.0%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
2	9.6%	9.8%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
3	5.6%	5.8%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	2.5%	2.6%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Brentford win

54.0%

Draw

25.1%

West Ham win

20.9%

Earlier this season

2025-10-20West Ham 0–2 Brentford

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	Champions	Europa	Conf.	Releg
1	Arsenal	81.6	78–85	69.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Manchester City	79.7	75–85	30.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Manchester United	66.9	63–71	0.0%	99.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Liverpool	63.6	59–68	0.0%	96.8%	2.9%	0.3%	0.0%
5	Aston Villa	63.4	59–68	0.0%	95.8%	3.8%	0.4%	0.0%
6	Brighton and Hove Albion	56.5	52–60	0.0%	5.8%	49.2%	21.2%	0.0%
7	AFC Bournemouth	54.0	50–59	0.0%	0.6%	12.3%	17.8%	0.0%
8	Fulham	53.5	49–57	0.0%	0.2%	7.5%	14.8%	0.0%
9	Chelsea	53.4	49–58	0.0%	0.7%	11.4%	17.5%	0.0%
10	Everton	52.9	49–57	0.0%	0.1%	5.4%	11.5%	0.0%
11	Brentford	52.8	49–57	0.0%	0.2%	5.7%	11.4%	0.0%
12	Sunderland	51.0	47–55	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	3.8%	0.0%
13	Crystal Palace	48.3	44–53	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	0.0%
14	Newcastle United	47.3	43–52	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
15	Leeds United	46.1	42–50	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%
16	Nottingham Forest	44.1	40–49	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%
17	West Ham United	40.3	37–45	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	39.2%
18	Tottenham Hotspur	38.9	35–43	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	57.2%
19	Burnley	23.8	20–27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	21.0	18–25	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

What needs to happen

For each club still in a live Title / Champions League / relegation race, here’s how the probability would move given the result of their next match, conditional on a win, draw, or loss. "pp" = percentage points.

Title race

Arsenal

P(1st)70%

H vs Fulham · May 2nd

Win(70% likely)77%+7.8 pp

Draw(20% likely)57%−12.8 pp

Loss(10% likely)43%−26.5 pp

Man City

P(1st)30%

A vs Everton · May 4th

Win(48% likely)43%+12.9 pp

Draw(28% likely)22%−8.0 pp

Loss(24% likely)15%−15.4 pp

Champions League (top 5)

Brighton

P(UCL)6%

A vs Newcastle · May 2nd

Win(37% likely)13%+6.8 pp

Draw(26% likely)2%−3.4 pp

Loss(37% likely)1%−4.8 pp

Relegation battle

Tottenham

P(drop)57%

A vs Villa · May 3rd

Win(30% likely)36%−21.7 pp

Draw(28% likely)60%+3.3 pp

Loss(42% likely)70%+13.3 pp

West Ham

P(drop)39%

A vs Brentford · May 2nd

Win(21% likely)16%−22.8 pp

Draw(25% likely)38%−0.7 pp

Loss(54% likely)49%+9.5 pp

Clinch watch

Strict-math status — what every remaining result could and couldn’t still produce. Ignores goal-difference tiebreakers, so the bar to "clinched" or "relegated" here is slightly conservative; probabilistic picture lives in the Projected final table above.

Champions (mathematically)

— not yet decided

Out of the title race

Liverpool Villa Brighton Bournemouth Chelsea Brentford Fulham Everton Sunderland Palace Newcastle Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves

Champions League clinched (top 5)

Arsenal Man City

Out of the Champions League race (top 5)

Newcastle Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves

European qualification secured (top 7)

Arsenal Man City Man United

Out of European qualification (top 7)

West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves

Safe from relegation

Arsenal Man City Man United Liverpool Villa Brighton Bournemouth Chelsea Brentford Fulham Everton

Relegated (mathematically)

Burnley Wolves

Run-in

Remaining fixtures for each side, in chronological order. Each tile is an opponent (TLA) with H/A marker; colour scales with that team's win probability in the match — green means favoured, yellow is a coin flip, red is a heavy underdog. "xPts rem" sums the expected points from all remaining matches; "/match" is the average (a schedule-difficulty proxy). Hover a tile for date, xG, and W/D/L probabilities.

	Team	Rem	H/A	xPts rem	/match	Remaining fixtures
1	Arsenal	4	2/2	8.7	2.17	FULHWHUABURHCRYA
2	Manchester City	5	3/2	9.7	1.94	EVEABREHCRYHBOUAAVLH
3	Manchester United	4	2/2	5.9	1.47	LIVHSUNANFOHBHAA
4	Liverpool	4	2/2	5.6	1.40	MUNACHEHAVLABREH
5	Aston Villa	4	2/2	5.4	1.35	TOTHBURALIVHMCIA
6	Brighton	4	2/2	6.4	1.61	NEWAWOLHLEEAMUNH
7	Bournemouth	4	2/2	5.0	1.26	CRYHFULAMCIHNFOA
8	Chelsea	4	2/2	5.4	1.35	NFOHLIVATOTHSUNA
9	Brentford	4	2/2	4.9	1.22	WHUHMCIACRYHLIVA
10	Fulham	4	2/2	5.5	1.37	ARSABOUHWOLANEWH
11	Everton	4	2/2	5.8	1.46	MCIHCRYASUNHTOTA
12	Sunderland	4	2/2	5.0	1.26	WOLAMUNHEVEACHEH
13	Crystal Palace	5	2/3	5.3	1.05	BOUAEVEHMCIABREAARSH
14	Newcastle United	4	2/2	5.4	1.34	BHAHNFOAWHUHFULA
15	Leeds United	4	2/2	6.2	1.54	BURHTOTABHAHWHUA
16	Nottingham Forest	4	2/2	5.1	1.28	CHEANEWHMUNABOUH
17	West Ham	4	2/2	4.2	1.06	BREAARSHNEWALEEH
18	Tottenham	4	2/2	4.9	1.23	AVLALEEHCHEAEVEH
19	Burnley	4	2/2	3.8	0.95	LEEAAVLHARSAWOLH
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	4	2/2	4.0	1.00	SUNHBHAAFULHBURA

Key remaining matches

Every unplayed fixture ranked by combined race stakes — the sum of how live each side’s title / Champions League / relegation race is. Use this to spot the high-leverage games further out than the next weekend’s slate.

	Date	GW	Fixture	W / D / L	Stakes
1	May 10th	MW 36	West Ham vs Arsenal	18% 24% 58%	West Ham drop 39% Arsenal title 70%
2	May 19th	MW 37	Chelsea vs Tottenham	35% 28% 37%	Chelsea Conf. 18% Tottenham drop 57%
3	May 19th	MW 37	Bournemouth vs Man City	28% 28% 43%	Bournemouth Conf. 18% Man City title 30%
4	May 24th	MW 38	Tottenham vs Everton	26% 28% 47%	Tottenham drop 57%
5	May 2nd	MW 35	Brentford vs West Ham	54% 25% 21%	West Ham drop 39%
6	May 2nd	MW 35	Arsenal vs Fulham	70% 20% 10%	Arsenal title 70%
7	May 4th	MW 35	Everton vs Man City	24% 28% 48%	Man City title 30%
8	May 9th	MW 36	Man City vs Brentford	67% 20% 13%	Man City title 30%
9	May 3rd	MW 35	Villa vs Tottenham	42% 28% 30%	Tottenham drop 57%
10	May 9th	MW 36	Fulham vs Bournemouth	50% 23% 27%	Bournemouth Conf. 18%

Race tracker

How each live race has moved over the season. Each panel shows the clubs still in contention for that outcome; locked-in sides (already qualified / already safe / already relegated) are dropped so the lines stay readable. Based on 2 season snapshots.

Position probability heatmap

Current table

	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	34	22	7	5	64	26	+38	73
2	Manchester City	33	21	7	5	66	29	+37	70
3	Manchester United	34	17	10	7	60	46	+14	61
4	Liverpool	34	17	7	10	57	44	+13	58
5	Aston Villa	34	17	7	10	47	42	+5	58
6	Brighton and Hove Albion	34	13	11	10	48	39	+9	50
7	AFC Bournemouth	34	11	16	7	52	52	+0	49
8	Chelsea	34	13	9	12	53	45	+8	48
9	Brentford	34	13	9	12	49	46	+3	48
10	Fulham	34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48
11	Everton	34	13	8	13	41	41	+0	47
12	Sunderland	34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46
13	Crystal Palace	33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43
14	Newcastle United	34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42
15	Leeds United	34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40
16	Nottingham Forest	34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39
17	West Ham United	34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36
18	Tottenham Hotspur	34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34
19	Burnley	34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17

Golden boot

Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is expected additional goals over the remaining schedule, derived from each team's fixture-adjusted xG and the player's current share of their team's goals. "Share" shows that share (scaled up so tracked scorers account for the full team GF). Bar length compares to the projected leader.

	Player	Team	Goals	+rem	Proj total	Share	A
1	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	24	+3.3	27.3	36%	7
2	Thiago Rodrigues	Brentford	21	+2.2	23.2	43%	1
3	Antoine Semenyo	Manchester City	15	+2.1	17.1	23%	4
4	João Pedro	Chelsea	14	+1.5	15.5	26%	5
5	Danny Welbeck	Brighton	13	+1.6	14.6	27%	0
6	Morgan Gibbs-White	Nottingham Forest	13	+1.6	14.6	32%	4
7	Viktor Gyökeres	Arsenal	12	+1.6	13.6	19%	0
8	Dominic Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	11	+1.6	12.6	25%	1
9	Ollie Watkins	Aston Villa	11	+1.2	12.2	23%	2
10	Hugo Ekitike	Liverpool	11	+1.2	12.2	19%	4
11	Eli Kroupi	Bournemouth	11	+1.1	12.1	21%	0
12	Jean-Philippe Mateta	Crystal Palace	10	+1.4	11.4	28%	0
13	Harry Wilson	Fulham	10	+1.2	11.2	23%	6
14	Benjamin Šeško	Manchester United	10	+1.0	11.0	17%	1
15	Raúl Jiménez	Fulham	9	+1.1	10.1	20%	3

Defence

Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected additional from remaining fixtures (sum of P(opponent scores 0) for clean sheets, sum of expected goals conceded for GA). "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.

	Team	GP	CS	+rem	Proj CS	GA	+rem	Proj GA	CS rate	GA/g
1	Arsenal	38	16	+1.8	17.8	26	+3.2	29.2	47%	0.77
2	Manchester City	38	14	+1.9	15.9	29	+4.8	33.8	42%	0.89
3	Crystal Palace	38	12	+1.3	13.3	39	+7.0	46.0	35%	1.21
4	Everton	38	11	+1.4	12.4	41	+4.4	45.4	33%	1.19
5	Sunderland	38	10	+1.0	11.0	45	+5.4	50.4	29%	1.33
6	Liverpool	38	10	+0.9	10.9	44	+6.0	50.0	29%	1.32
7	Brighton	38	9	+1.3	10.3	39	+4.7	43.7	27%	1.15
8	Aston Villa	38	9	+1.1	10.1	42	+5.5	47.5	27%	1.25
9	Nottingham Forest	38	9	+1.0	10.0	45	+5.6	50.6	26%	1.33
10	Chelsea	38	9	+1.0	10.0	45	+5.7	50.7	26%	1.33
11	Brentford	38	9	+0.9	9.9	46	+6.3	52.3	26%	1.38
12	Bournemouth	38	9	+0.9	9.9	52	+6.0	58.0	26%	1.53
13	Fulham	38	8	+1.1	9.1	46	+5.6	51.6	24%	1.36
14	Newcastle United	38	8	+1.1	9.1	50	+5.4	55.4	24%	1.46
15	Tottenham	38	8	+1.0	9.0	53	+5.8	58.8	24%	1.55
16	Leeds United	38	7	+1.1	8.1	51	+5.4	56.4	21%	1.48
17	Manchester United	38	6	+1.0	7.0	46	+5.6	51.6	18%	1.36
18	West Ham	38	6	+0.7	6.7	58	+7.0	65.0	18%	1.71
19	Wolverhampton Wanderers	38	4	+1.0	5.0	62	+5.6	67.6	13%	1.78
20	Burnley	38	4	+0.9	4.9	68	+7.3	75.3	13%	1.98