Premier League 2026-27

0 matches played, 380 remaining · updated July 18, 2026

The verdict The model makes Arsenal preseason favorites for the 2026-27 title at 59%, with Man City the closest challenger at 30%. At the bottom, Hull, Coventry, Ipswich are the model's most likely to go down.

Live Wire — latest Premier League headlines

Summer business

Confirmed deals from the 2026-27 summer window (53 signings across the league so far). See every club’s ins & outs →

Biggest signings

Elliot Anderson→ Man City£116m

Sandro Tonali→ Tottenham£100m

Mateus Fernandes→ Tottenham£85m

Johan Manzambi→ Villa£59.5m

Jérémy Jacquet→ Liverpool£55m

Jan-Paul van Hecke→ Tottenham£52m

Andrey Santos→ Man United£48m

Marco Palestra→ Chelsea£47m

Luka Vusković→ Brighton£46m

Geovany Quenda→ Chelsea£44m

Season preview

A model-eye view of 2026-27 before a ball is kicked: projected tiers, the biggest movers from last season, how the promoted clubs are seen, and the storylines the numbers flag.

Title & Champions League race

Arsenal59%Man City30%Liverpool4%Man United4%Chelsea

European places

VillaTottenham

Mid-table

BrightonBournemouthNewcastleBrentfordEvertonForestLeedsFulhamPalaceSunderland

Relegation scrap

IpswichCoventryHull

Projected risers

▲ 10Tottenham17th → 7th

▲ 5Chelsea10th → 5th

▲ 3Forest16th → 13th

Projected fallers

▼ 10Sunderland7th → 17th

▼ 4Fulham11th → 15th

▼ 3Bournemouth6th → 9th

Promoted-side watch

Storylines to watch

Arsenal are the model's preseason title favorites at 59%.
The relegation fight looks wide open — Hull, Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland all carry real risk.
Biggest projected riser: Tottenham, up from 17th to a projected 7th.
Of the promoted trio, Ipswich have the best survival odds at 44%.

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next gameweek. Bar shows home win / draw / away win probabilities; xG columns are the expected goals per side; likely score is the most probable scoreline within the most likely outcome bucket (percentage in parens is that scoreline's joint probability). Each gameweek’s biggest fixture — picked by combined race stakes — is featured beneath its schedule.

Gameweek 1Aug 21 – Aug 2410 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
Aug 21	Arsenal	vs	Coventry City	82% 13% 5%	2.73 – 0.56	2–0(14%)
Aug 22	Brentford	vs	Tottenham	36% 27% 37%	1.37 – 1.40	1–2(8%)
Aug 22	Everton	vs	Crystal Palace	41% 28% 32%	1.45 – 1.25	2–1(9%)
Aug 22	Hull City	vs	Manchester United	21% 24% 56%	1.08 – 1.90	1–2(10%)
Aug 22	Ipswich Town	vs	Sunderland	41% 29% 30%	1.37 – 1.13	1–0(10%)
Aug 22	Nottingham Forest	vs	Leeds United	43% 29% 29%	1.40 – 1.11	1–0(10%)
Aug 23	Brighton	vs	Aston Villa	42% 28% 30%	1.45 – 1.18	1–0(9%)
Aug 23	Manchester City	vs	Bournemouth	69% 19% 13%	2.43 – 0.99	2–0(10%)
Aug 23	Newcastle United	vs	Liverpool	38% 24% 38%	1.76 – 1.77	1–2(8%)
Aug 24	Fulham	vs	Chelsea	31% 26% 43%	1.30 – 1.58	1–2(9%)

Featured match

Arsenal host Coventry in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Gunners chasing the title at a 59% shot, the Sky Blues scrapping to stay up at a 64% relegation risk. The model leans toward the Gunners (82% home win, 13% draw, 5% away), with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline at 14%.

Gameweek 1 · 2026-08-21

Arsenal

1st0 ptsxG 2.73

no played matches yet

Coventry

7th0 ptsxG 0.56

no played matches yet

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	4.2%	1.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	9.7%	6.2%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	13.9%	7.8%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	12.7%	7.1%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	8.7%	4.8%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	4.7%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	3.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Arsenal win

82.3%

Draw

12.9%

Coventry win

4.8%

First meeting this season

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	Champions	Europa	Conf.	Releg
1	Arsenal	77.5	65–89	58.7%	98.7%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
2	Manchester City	73.3	61–85	29.6%	95.7%	1.9%	1.1%	0.0%
3	Liverpool	63.7	51–77	4.3%	66.5%	9.5%	6.8%	0.1%
4	Manchester United	63.7	51–76	4.4%	65.8%	9.6%	7.1%	0.1%
5	Chelsea	59.0	46–72	1.4%	42.2%	11.6%	10.0%	0.5%
6	Aston Villa	56.4	44–69	0.5%	29.2%	11.1%	10.4%	1.0%
7	Tottenham Hotspur	54.4	41–67	0.3%	21.8%	8.5%	9.5%	2.2%
8	Brighton and Hove Albion	53.8	41–67	0.2%	17.9%	8.8%	9.6%	2.2%
9	AFC Bournemouth	52.7	40–65	0.2%	15.2%	7.7%	8.4%	3.0%
10	Newcastle United	52.7	40–66	0.1%	15.2%	8.0%	8.7%	2.9%
11	Brentford	50.4	38–63	0.1%	9.2%	5.4%	6.6%	5.8%
12	Everton	49.7	37–63	0.1%	8.0%	5.5%	6.0%	6.7%
13	Nottingham Forest	47.8	35–60	0.1%	4.8%	3.4%	4.5%	10.2%
14	Leeds United	46.6	34–59	0.0%	3.6%	2.9%	3.3%	13.1%
15	Fulham	45.1	33–58	0.0%	2.2%	2.0%	2.8%	17.6%
16	Crystal Palace	44.6	32–57	0.0%	2.1%	1.7%	2.5%	19.6%
17	Sunderland	43.7	32–56	0.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.8%	22.8%
18	Ipswich Town	37.6	26–50	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	55.5%
19	Coventry City	36.1	25–48	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	63.7%
20	Hull City	34.5	23–46	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	72.9%

Premier League 2026-27

Summer business

Season preview

Upcoming fixtures

Projected final table

Position probability heatmap