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Premier League 2026-27

50 matches played, 330 remaining · updated October 5, 2026

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Today’s digest

The day’s Premier League news, verified and curated — the news hub keeps every past digest.

Alex Scott faces up to eight weeks out with a thigh injuryHurt in England's 7-0 win over Croatia, the Bournemouth midfielder has left the squad and could miss Chelsea away on October 11th, three Europa League ties, and the Carabao Cup fourth-round tie with Aston Villa. — Yahoo Sports
Konsa leaves the England camp and returns to Arsenal for assessmentA muscular niggle kept him out against Czechia; he then played 90 minutes against Croatia and has now been sent back to London, five days before Leeds visit the Emirates. — Yahoo Sports
Norway say Haaland's early exit against Portugal was plannedStåle Solbakken said the substitution had been agreed in advance to manage Haaland's minutes, easing fears raised by images of him limping, before City's trip to Liverpool on October 11th. — Goal

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next gameweek. The bar is the win / draw / win split, xG the expected goals per side, and the likely score the model's best guess at the result, with its probability.

Gameweek 6Oct 1010 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
Oct 10	Arsenal	vs	Leeds United	70% 19% 11%	2.40 – 0.71	2–0(12%)

Oct 10	Aston Villa	vs	Brentford	37% 27% 37%	1.45 – 1.35	2–1(8%)

Oct 10	Chelsea	vs	Bournemouth	55% 23% 22%	2.11 – 1.35	2–1(9%)

Oct 10	Ipswich Town	vs	Fulham	35% 27% 38%	1.19 – 1.24	0–1(11%)

Oct 10	Sunderland	vs	Brighton	32% 27% 41%	1.14 – 1.55	0–1(9%)

Oct 10	Manchester United	vs	Tottenham	55% 23% 22%	1.95 – 1.21	2–1(10%)

Oct 10	Crystal Palace	vs	Nottingham Forest	34% 28% 37%	1.20 – 1.59	1–2(8%)

Oct 10	Hull City	vs	Everton	26% 28% 45%	0.93 – 1.30	0–1(14%)

Oct 10	Liverpool	vs	Manchester City	36% 26% 38%	1.38 – 1.51	1–2(8%)

Oct 10	Coventry City	vs	Newcastle United	27% 26% 47%	0.95 – 1.70	0–1(10%)

Featured match

Liverpool host Man City in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Reds fighting for a Champions League place (58% qualifying), the Citizens chasing the title at a 42% shot. In form, the visitors come in on the front foot, 5 wins from their last five. The model leans toward the Citizens (36% home win, 26% draw, 38% away), with 1–2 the likeliest scoreline at 8%.

Gameweek 6 · 2026-10-10

Liverpool

6th9 ptsxG 1.38

FormWDWDD

Man City

1st15 ptsxG 1.51

FormWWWWW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	6.1%	7.5%	6.1%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
1	7.5%	12.1%	8.3%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
2	5.6%	8.5%	6.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
3	2.6%	3.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.9%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Liverpool win

36.1%

Draw

25.8%

Man City win

38.1%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 56 times in the Premier League era — Liverpool 23, draws 19, Man City 14 — with Liverpool 18–7–3 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Man City’s 1-2 win in this fixture in May 2003, a 12% chance on the day.

Featured match

Ipswich host Fulham in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Tractor Boys scrapping to stay up at a 61% relegation risk, the Cottagers scrapping to stay up at a 21% relegation risk. In form, the hosts have lost 3 of their last five and the visitors have lost 3 of their last five. The model leans toward the Cottagers (35% home win, 27% draw, 38% away), with 0–1 the likeliest scoreline at 11%.

Gameweek 6 · 2026-10-10

Ipswich

11th6 ptsxG 1.19

FormLWLLW

Fulham

19th2 ptsxG 1.24

FormDDLLL

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	9.0%	10.5%	6.9%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
1	10.0%	13.0%	8.2%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2	6.3%	7.8%	4.5%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
3	2.5%	3.1%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Ipswich win

34.9%

Draw

27.4%

Fulham win

37.7%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 4 times in the Premier League era — Ipswich 1, draws 3, Fulham 0 — with Ipswich 1–1–0 as hosts.

Featured match

Arsenal host Leeds in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Gunners chasing the title at a 49% shot, the Peacocks fighting for a Champions League place (10% qualifying). In form, the hosts arrive in good nick, with 4 wins from their last five. The model leans toward the Gunners (70% home win, 19% draw, 11% away), with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline at 12%.

Gameweek 6 · 2026-10-10

Arsenal

2nd12 ptsxG 2.40

FormLWWWW

Leeds

5th9 ptsxG 0.71

FormDWDDW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	5.4%	3.6%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	9.7%	8.9%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	12.1%	8.6%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	9.7%	6.9%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	5.8%	4.1%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	2.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	1.6%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Arsenal win

70.2%

Draw

18.6%

Leeds win

11.2%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 30 times in the Premier League era — Arsenal 19, draws 4, Leeds 7 — with Arsenal 12–0–3 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Leeds’s 2-3 win in this fixture in May 2003, a 11% chance on the day.

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	UCL	UEL	UECL	Releg
1	Arsenal	79.9	68–91	49.0%49.0%	99.1%99.1%	0.5%0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
2	Manchester City	78.5	65–92	41.5%41.5%	97.3%97.3%	1.4%1.4%	0.6%0.6%	0.0%
3	Brighton and Hove Albion	66.2	53–80	4.5%4.5%	73.0%73.0%	8.9%8.9%	6.1%6.1%	0.0%
4	Liverpool	63.3	50–76	1.9%1.9%	58.5%58.5%	11.8%11.8%	9.1%9.1%	0.1%
5	Chelsea	60.6	44–77	2.1%2.1%	45.1%45.1%	10.6%10.6%	9.0%9.0%	1.0%1.0%
6	Brentford	58.9	46–71	0.4%	35.9%35.9%	13.4%13.4%	12.3%12.3%	0.2%
7	Manchester United	57.8	45–70	0.2%	30.3%30.3%	13.2%13.2%	12.3%12.3%	0.3%
8	Newcastle United	54.1	41–68	0.1%	17.3%17.3%	9.1%9.1%	9.6%9.6%	1.9%1.9%
9	Everton	53.9	42–67	0.1%	14.8%14.8%	9.0%9.0%	10.1%10.1%	1.1%1.1%
10	Leeds United	52.3	40–65	0.0%	10.1%10.1%	7.1%7.1%	8.8%8.8%	2.2%2.2%
11	Aston Villa	48.9	34–64	0.0%	7.9%7.9%	4.4%4.4%	5.8%5.8%	8.7%8.7%
12	AFC Bournemouth	46.8	35–59	0.0%	2.4%2.4%	2.7%2.7%	4.1%4.1%	8.9%8.9%
13	Nottingham Forest	44.4	32–57	0.0%	1.8%1.8%	1.6%1.6%	2.5%2.5%	15.4%15.4%
14	Tottenham Hotspur	44.2	30–59	0.0%	2.7%2.7%	2.0%2.0%	2.6%2.6%	19.4%19.4%
15	Sunderland	43.7	32–56	0.0%	1.2%1.2%	1.3%1.3%	2.0%2.0%	17.9%17.9%
16	Fulham	42.8	30–56	0.0%	1.0%1.0%	1.1%1.1%	1.8%1.8%	21.1%21.1%
17	Hull City	42.2	29–56	0.0%	1.2%1.2%	1.2%1.2%	1.7%1.7%	25.8%25.8%
18	Crystal Palace	40.6	28–53	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%0.5%	1.1%1.1%	31.6%31.6%
19	Ipswich Town	35.2	23–49	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	61.3%61.3%
20	Coventry City	29.7	18–43	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	83.1%83.1%

Race tracker

How each race has moved. Hover a line to follow one club; expand a card for the full field.

Title race

top 5 of 7 in the race

Champions League

top 5 of 13 in the race

Relegation battle

top 5 of 14 in the race

Position probability heatmap

Chance of each final position, teams sorted by expected points. Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Arsenal	49	34	11	4	1	1
Man City	42	34	13	6	3	1	1
Brighton	4	12	24	19	13	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	1
Liverpool	2	7	17	18	16	12	9	6	5	3	2	1	1	1
Chelsea	2	6	12	13	12	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1
Brentford		2	7	12	13	13	12	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	1
Man United		1	6	10	13	13	12	10	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1
Newcastle		1	3	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1
Everton		1	2	5	7	9	10	11	11	10	8	8	6	4	3	2	2	1
Leeds			1	3	5	7	9	10	11	10	10	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	1
Aston Villa			1	2	4	4	6	7	7	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	1
Bournemouth				1	1	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	7	7	5	3	1
Forest				1	1	2	2	3	5	6	7	9	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	2
Tottenham				1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	7	4
Sunderland					1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	9	6	2
Fulham					1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	9	10	11	11	11	7	3
Hull					1	1	2	3	3	4	6	7	8	8	10	11	11	11	10	5
Palace						1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	10	12	13	13	12	6
Ipswich								1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	11	16	24	22
Coventry												1	1	2	2	3	6	10	20	53

Golden boot

Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is the goals still expected over the remaining fixtures; "Share" is the player's share of his club's goals. Bar length compares to the projected leader.

	Player	Team	Goals	+rem	Proj total	Share	A
1	Haaland	Manchester City	5	+23.1	28.1	35%	0
2	Isak	Liverpool	4	+14.2	18.2	26%	0
3	Rogers	Chelsea	3	+12.9	15.9	22%	1
4	Saka	Arsenal	3	+12.7	15.7	19%	0
5	B.Fernandes	Manchester United	3	+10.9	13.9	19%	1
6	Semenyo	Manchester City	2	+11.5	13.5	17%	3
7	Cherki	Manchester City	3	+10.3	13.3	16%	2
8	João Pedro	Chelsea	3	+10.2	13.2	18%	3
9	Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	2	+11.1	13.1	25%	1
10	Tavernier	Bournemouth	3	+10.1	13.1	22%	0
11	Palmer	Chelsea	2	+10.1	12.1	18%	2
12	Mbeumo	Manchester United	2	+10.0	12.0	18%	1
13	Schade	Brentford	3	+9.0	12.0	18%	2
14	Brobbey	Sunderland	3	+8.7	11.7	22%	0
15	Gibbs-White	Nottingham Forest	1	+10.6	11.6	27%	2

Defence

Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected addition from the remaining fixtures; "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.

	Team	GP	CS	+rem	Proj CS	GA	+rem	Proj GA	CS rate	GA/g
1	Arsenal	38	3	+13.8	16.8	4	+29.2	33.2	44%	0.87
2	Brighton	38	3	+10.4	13.4	5	+39.7	44.7	35%	1.18
3	Manchester City	38	2	+11.3	13.3	5	+36.0	41.0	35%	1.08
4	Liverpool	38	3	+9.7	12.7	4	+42.0	46.0	33%	1.21
5	Everton	38	3	+9.0	12.0	3	+44.4	47.4	32%	1.25
6	Brentford	38	2	+9.2	11.2	4	+44.2	48.2	29%	1.27
7	Hull City	38	3	+7.2	10.2	4	+52.6	56.6	27%	1.49
8	Leeds United	38	2	+8.1	10.1	3	+48.7	51.7	27%	1.36
9	Tottenham	38	2	+7.7	9.7	8	+50.0	58.0	25%	1.53
10	Aston Villa	38	1	+8.3	9.3	9	+47.5	56.5	24%	1.49
11	Newcastle United	38	1	+8.2	9.2	9	+47.6	56.6	24%	1.49
12	Chelsea	38	0	+8.9	8.9	12	+44.5	56.5	23%	1.49
13	Manchester United	38	0	+8.9	8.9	8	+44.9	52.9	23%	1.39
14	Nottingham Forest	38	1	+7.9	8.9	5	+48.7	53.7	23%	1.41
15	Sunderland	38	1	+7.9	8.9	10	+49.5	59.5	23%	1.57
16	Fulham	38	1	+7.8	8.8	8	+49.5	57.5	23%	1.51
17	Crystal Palace	38	1	+7.1	8.1	11	+53.1	64.1	21%	1.69
18	Bournemouth	38	0	+8.0	8.0	8	+49.7	57.7	21%	1.52
19	Coventry City	38	1	+5.4	6.4	10	+61.2	71.2	17%	1.87
20	Ipswich Town	38	0	+5.6	5.6	11	+62.6	73.6	15%	1.94