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Premier League 2026-27

20 matches played, 360 remaining · updated September 2, 2026

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Today’s digest

The day’s Premier League news, verified and curated — the news hub keeps every past digest.

Nine Premier League clubs must lodge their Champions League and Europa squads tonightUEFA's List A deadline is 11.59pm CET tonight, hours after the domestic window shut. Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton, Sunderland, and Crystal Palace each pick 25 names, eight of them locally trained; anyone left off is unavailable in Europe until January. — UEFA
Premier League summer spending closes at a record £3.48bnThe twenty clubs beat last summer's £3.19bn with more than half of them setting a new club record, and the bill landed in the first season under the Squad Cost Ratio rules that cap spending at 115% of revenue. — Sky Sports
Conor Coady is training with Liverpool's under-21s while he looks for a clubThe 33-year-old tore up his Wrexham contract on the eve of deadline day after six appearances and has gone back to his boyhood club to keep fit and shadow Jay Spearing and Rob Page on the coaching side. — BBC Sport

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next gameweek. The bar is the win / draw / win split, xG the expected goals per side, and the likely score the model's best guess at the result, with its probability. Each gameweek’s biggest fixture is featured beneath its schedule.

Gameweek 3Sep 4 – Sep 610 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
Sep 4	Ipswich Town	vs	Liverpool	18% 21% 62%	1.10 – 2.28	1–2(9%)

Sep 5	Newcastle United	vs	Bournemouth	45% 25% 30%	1.95 – 1.51	2–1(8%)

Sep 5	Brentford	vs	Sunderland	60% 23% 17%	2.00 – 0.82	2–0(11%)

Sep 5	Brighton	vs	Leeds United	52% 26% 23%	1.84 – 0.96	1–0(10%)

Sep 5	Fulham	vs	Crystal Palace	42% 27% 31%	1.54 – 1.16	1–0(9%)

Sep 5	Manchester City	vs	Coventry City	83% 11% 6%	3.44 – 0.62	3–0(11%)

Sep 5	Nottingham Forest	vs	Tottenham	36% 28% 36%	1.12 – 1.38	1–0(10%)

Sep 5	Hull City	vs	Aston Villa	24% 26% 50%	1.07 – 1.65	0–1(10%)

Sep 6	Everton	vs	Manchester United	31% 27% 42%	1.30 – 1.54	1–2(9%)

Sep 6	Arsenal	vs	Chelsea	56% 25% 19%	1.94 – 0.99	2–0(10%)

Featured match

Ipswich host Liverpool in a fixture with stakes on both sides — Town scrapping to stay up at a 56% relegation risk, the Reds fighting for a Champions League place (60% qualifying). The model leans toward the Reds (18% home win, 21% draw, 62% away), with 1–2 the likeliest scoreline at 9%.

Gameweek 3 · 2026-09-04

Ipswich

12th3 ptsxG 1.10

FormLW

Liverpool

13th2 ptsxG 2.28

FormDD

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	4.0%	7.1%	8.6%	6.6%	3.7%	1.7%	0.9%
1	3.5%	9.3%	9.5%	7.2%	4.1%	1.9%	1.0%
2	2.2%	5.0%	5.5%	4.0%	2.3%	1.0%	0.6%
3	0.8%	1.8%	2.1%	1.5%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Ipswich win

17.6%

Draw

20.7%

Liverpool win

61.7%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 10 times in the Premier League era — Ipswich 2, draws 1, Liverpool 7 — with Ipswich 0–1–4 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Ipswich’s 0-1 win in the reverse fixture in December 2000, a 14% chance on the day.

Featured match

Arsenal host Chelsea in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Gunners chasing the title at a 47% shot, the Blues chasing the title at a 10% shot. The model leans toward the Gunners (56% home win, 25% draw, 19% away), with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.

Gameweek 3 · 2026-09-06

Arsenal

2nd6 ptsxG 1.94

FormWW

Chelsea

4th6 ptsxG 0.99

FormWW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	6.4%	4.9%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
1	9.4%	11.7%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2	9.6%	9.5%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
3	6.2%	6.2%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	3.0%	3.0%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.2%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Arsenal win

56.5%

Draw

24.7%

Chelsea win

18.8%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 66 times in the Premier League era — Arsenal 27, draws 20, Chelsea 19 — with Arsenal 17–9–7 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Arsenal’s 3-5 win in the reverse fixture in October 2011, a 17% chance on the day.

Featured match

Brentford host Sunderland in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Bees fighting for a Champions League place (38% qualifying), the Black Cats scrapping to stay up at a 26% relegation risk. The model leans toward the Bees (60% home win, 23% draw, 17% away), with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline at 11%.

Gameweek 3 · 2026-09-05

Brentford

5th4 ptsxG 2.00

FormDW

Sunderland

11th3 ptsxG 0.82

FormWL

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	7.0%	5.2%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
1	10.7%	11.2%	4.7%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2	11.1%	9.1%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
3	7.4%	6.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
4	3.7%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.5%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Brentford win

60.1%

Draw

23.4%

Sunderland win

16.5%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 2 times in the Premier League era — Brentford 1, draws 0, Sunderland 1 — with Brentford 1–0–0 as hosts.

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	UCL	UEL	UECL	Releg
1	Arsenal	79.5	67–92	47.1%47.1%	97.9%97.9%	1.1%1.1%	0.5%	0.0%
2	Manchester City	77.2	62–91	35.8%35.8%	94.5%94.5%	2.3%2.3%	1.4%1.4%	0.0%
3	Chelsea	67.0	49–85	10.0%10.0%	67.2%67.2%	7.1%7.1%	6.1%6.1%	0.3%
4	Liverpool	64.5	51–78	3.2%3.2%	60.2%60.2%	11.2%11.2%	8.4%8.4%	0.1%
5	Brentford	60.3	48–73	0.8%0.8%	38.3%38.3%	13.5%13.5%	11.5%11.5%	0.2%
6	Brighton and Hove Albion	59.9	45–75	1.4%1.4%	38.8%38.8%	11.0%11.0%	10.1%10.1%	0.6%0.6%
7	Manchester United	58.9	46–72	0.7%0.7%	32.2%32.2%	11.7%11.7%	12.2%12.2%	0.3%
8	Newcastle United	55.0	40–70	0.4%	19.0%19.0%	9.1%9.1%	9.6%9.6%	2.1%2.1%
9	Aston Villa	52.9	37–69	0.4%	15.4%15.4%	7.2%7.2%	7.4%7.4%	4.8%4.8%
10	Tottenham Hotspur	51.2	35–67	0.2%	12.3%12.3%	5.6%5.6%	6.9%6.9%	6.4%6.4%
11	Everton	51.0	38–64	0.0%	7.3%7.3%	5.5%5.5%	6.9%6.9%	3.4%3.4%
12	Leeds United	49.8	37–63	0.0%	5.5%5.5%	4.6%4.6%	5.6%5.6%	4.6%4.6%
13	AFC Bournemouth	49.6	37–63	0.0%	5.3%5.3%	4.3%4.3%	5.1%5.1%	4.6%4.6%
14	Nottingham Forest	46.4	33–60	0.0%	2.8%2.8%	2.3%2.3%	3.2%3.2%	10.8%10.8%
15	Crystal Palace	43.6	30–58	0.0%	1.4%1.4%	1.5%1.5%	2.1%2.1%	19.0%19.0%
16	Fulham	42.5	30–56	0.0%	0.8%0.8%	0.9%0.9%	1.4%1.4%	21.3%21.3%
17	Sunderland	41.2	29–54	0.0%	0.6%0.6%	0.5%	0.9%0.9%	25.9%25.9%
18	Hull City	36.1	23–51	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	54.8%54.8%
19	Ipswich Town	35.6	22–51	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	56.5%56.5%
20	Coventry City	28.3	15–43	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	84.2%84.2%

Race tracker

How each race has moved. Hover a line to follow one club; expand a card for the full field.

Title race

top 5 of 7 in the race

Champions League

top 5 of 13 in the race

Relegation battle

top 5 of 13 in the race

Position probability heatmap

Chance of each final position, teams sorted by expected points. Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Arsenal	47	31	13	5	2	1
Man City	36	32	16	7	4	2	1	1
Chelsea	10	13	19	14	11	7	6	5	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
Liverpool	3	9	16	17	14	11	8	6	5	3	2	2	1	1
Brentford	1	3	8	12	14	13	11	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1
Brighton	1	5	9	12	12	11	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1
Man United	1	3	7	10	12	12	12	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	1
Newcastle		1	4	6	8	9	10	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	3	3	2	1	1
Aston Villa		1	3	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	3	1	1
Tottenham		1	2	4	5	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	4	3	2	1
Everton			1	2	4	5	7	8	9	10	9	9	9	7	6	5	4	2	1
Leeds			1	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	9	9	8	7	5	3	1
Bournemouth			1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	9	10	9	9	7	6	5	3	1
Forest				1	1	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	10	10	8	6	4	1
Palace					1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	8	10	11	11	11	10	6	3
Fulham						1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	12	13	11	7	3
Sunderland							1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	12	13	14	13	9	4
Hull								1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	12	17	22	15
Ipswich								1	1	1	2	3	3	5	7	9	11	16	22	18
Coventry												1	1	2	2	3	6	10	21	53

Golden boot

Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is expected additional goals over the remaining schedule, derived from each team's fixture-adjusted xG and the player's share of their team's goals — seeded early in the season from last season's shares, handed over to this season's scoring as it accumulates. "Share" shows that share (scaled up so tracked scorers account for the full team GF). Bar length compares to the projected leader.

	Player	Team	Goals	+rem	Proj total	Share	A
1	Haaland	Manchester City	2	+24.3	26.3	32%	0
2	B.Fernandes	Manchester United	3	+13.9	16.9	23%	1
3	Palmer	Chelsea	2	+13.3	15.3	20%	1
4	Gibbs-White	Nottingham Forest	1	+14.1	15.1	30%	1
5	Saka	Arsenal	2	+12.5	14.5	18%	0
6	Cherki	Manchester City	2	+12.2	14.2	16%	2
7	Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	1	+12.5	13.5	26%	0
8	João Pedro	Chelsea	2	+9.9	11.9	15%	2
9	Elanga	Newcastle United	2	+9.7	11.7	18%	0
10	Rogers	Chelsea	1	+10.1	11.1	15%	1
11	Hinshelwood	Brighton	2	+8.7	10.7	15%	0
12	Dewsbury-Hall	Everton	1	+9.6	10.6	20%	0
13	Watkins	Aston Villa	0	+10.5	10.5	20%	0
14	Welbeck	Chelsea	0	+10.3	10.3	16%	0
15	Mbeumo	Manchester United	1	+9.2	10.2	15%	1

Defence

Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected additional from remaining fixtures (sum of P(opponent scores 0) for clean sheets, sum of expected goals conceded for GA). "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.

	Team	GP	CS	+rem	Proj CS	GA	+rem	Proj GA	CS rate	GA/g
1	Arsenal	38	2	+15.2	17.2	0	+31.7	31.7	45%	0.83
2	Manchester City	38	0	+12.6	12.6	2	+39.1	41.1	33%	1.08
3	Brighton	38	1	+10.6	11.6	4	+45.9	49.9	31%	1.31
4	Brentford	38	1	+10.6	11.6	1	+46.5	47.5	30%	1.25
5	Liverpool	38	0	+10.6	10.6	4	+45.8	49.8	28%	1.31
6	Chelsea	38	0	+10.4	10.4	5	+46.7	51.7	27%	1.36
7	Newcastle United	38	1	+9.2	10.2	2	+50.6	52.6	27%	1.39
8	Everton	38	1	+9.2	10.2	1	+50.8	51.8	27%	1.36
9	Aston Villa	38	0	+9.9	9.9	5	+48.7	53.7	26%	1.41
10	Leeds United	38	1	+8.7	9.7	1	+53.9	54.9	26%	1.44
11	Tottenham	38	0	+9.6	9.6	5	+49.5	54.5	25%	1.43
12	Manchester United	38	0	+9.2	9.2	4	+50.7	54.7	24%	1.44
13	Sunderland	38	1	+7.9	8.9	2	+57.3	59.3	23%	1.56
14	Nottingham Forest	38	0	+8.8	8.8	3	+53.2	56.2	23%	1.48
15	Bournemouth	38	0	+8.7	8.7	3	+53.7	56.7	23%	1.49
16	Crystal Palace	38	0	+8.6	8.6	6	+53.8	59.8	23%	1.57
17	Fulham	38	0	+8.1	8.1	4	+57.2	61.2	21%	1.61
18	Hull City	38	2	+6.0	8.0	0	+68.3	68.3	21%	1.80
19	Ipswich Town	38	0	+6.1	6.1	6	+66.6	72.6	16%	1.91
20	Coventry City	38	0	+5.6	5.6	4	+71.1	75.1	15%	1.98