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Premier League 2026-27

60 matches played, 320 remaining · updated October 17, 2026

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Today’s digest

The day’s Premier League news, verified and curated — the news hub keeps every past digest.

Reece James faces up to three months out after knee surgeryChelsea captain Reece James faces up to three months on the sidelines after minor knee surgery, having not featured since the 2-2 draw with Hull on 12 September. — The Independent
Mikel Arteta says Arsenal redundancies were explained to him as part of the club's evolutionThe manager was told the 60 job cuts will help the champions keep investing after a record revenue year, while playing and coaching staff are unaffected. — The Independent
David Moyes says Everton contract talks have gone quiet as club explores saleThe manager is in the final year of his deal and does not expect imminent developments while Friedkin explores selling the club. — The Independent
Morgan Gibbs-White is a doubt for Nottingham Forest's clash with ArsenalForest's England international has missed all week's training with a calf injury, leaving Oliver Glasner to assess him before Sunday's visit from the champions. — The Independent
Alex Scott's Bournemouth return could come sooner than fearedMarco Rose says the midfielder's thigh injury is healing better than an eight-week prognosis, allowing Bournemouth to progress his rehabilitation sooner. — The Independent

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next gameweek. The bar is the win / draw / win split, xG the expected goals per side, and the likely score the model's best guess at the result, with its probability.

Gameweek 7Oct 1710 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
Oct 17	Everton	vs	Chelsea	30% 26% 44%	1.32 – 1.77	1–2(9%)

Oct 17	Brentford	vs	Liverpool	40% 26% 34%	1.62 – 1.37	2–1(8%)

Oct 17	Fulham	vs	Hull City	56% 24% 20%	1.84 – 1.01	1–0(10%)

Oct 17	Manchester City	vs	Ipswich Town	79% 13% 8%	3.33 – 0.77	3–0(9%)

Oct 17	Newcastle United	vs	Aston Villa	43% 26% 32%	1.81 – 1.42	2–1(9%)

Oct 17	Bournemouth	vs	Sunderland	46% 27% 27%	1.59 – 1.09	1–0(10%)

Oct 17	Brighton	vs	Crystal Palace	63% 21% 16%	2.07 – 0.91	2–0(11%)

Oct 17	Leeds United	vs	Manchester United	41% 26% 33%	1.52 – 1.29	2–1(9%)

Oct 17	Nottingham Forest	vs	Arsenal	16% 24% 59%	0.68 – 1.73	0–1(14%)

Oct 17	Tottenham	vs	Coventry City	63% 21% 16%	1.84 – 0.91	1–0(12%)

Featured match

Man City host Ipswich in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Sky Blues chasing the title at a 55% shot, Town scrapping to stay up at a 48% relegation risk. In form, the hosts arrive in good nick, with 5 wins from their last five and the visitors have lost 3 of their last five. The model leans toward the Sky Blues (79% home win, 13% draw, 8% away), with 3–0 the likeliest scoreline at 9%.

Gameweek 7 · 2026-10-17

Man City

1st18 ptsxG 3.33

FormWWWWW

Ipswich

10th9 ptsxG 0.77

FormWLWLL

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	2.5%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	4.9%	5.9%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	8.5%	6.6%	3.6%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
3	9.5%	7.3%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	7.9%	6.1%	2.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
5	5.3%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	4.9%	3.8%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Man City win

78.6%

Draw

13.2%

Ipswich win

8.2%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 8 times in the Premier League era — Man City 5, draws 1, Ipswich 2 — with Man City 3–0–1 as hosts.

Featured match

Brentford host Liverpool in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Bees fighting for a Champions League place (47% qualifying), the Reds fighting for a Champions League place (44% qualifying). The model leans toward the Bees (40% home win, 26% draw, 34% away), with 2–1 the likeliest scoreline at 8%.

Gameweek 7 · 2026-10-17

Brentford

4th10 ptsxG 1.62

FormDWDDD

Liverpool

9th9 ptsxG 1.37

FormLWDWD

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	5.7%	6.7%	5.0%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
1	7.1%	12.0%	8.1%	3.7%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2	6.2%	8.5%	6.4%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
3	3.3%	4.6%	3.1%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
4	1.4%	1.9%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Brentford win

40.2%

Draw

25.9%

Liverpool win

34.0%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 10 times in the Premier League era — Brentford 2, draws 2, Liverpool 6 — with Brentford 2–1–2 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Brentford’s 3-1 win in this fixture in January 2023, a 17% chance on the day.

Featured match

Fulham host Hull in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Cottagers scrapping to stay up at a 23% relegation risk, the Tigers scrapping to stay up at a 42% relegation risk. In form, the hosts have lost 3 of their last five. The model leans toward the Cottagers (56% home win, 24% draw, 20% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.

Gameweek 7 · 2026-10-17

Fulham

20th2 ptsxG 1.84

FormLDDLL

Hull

8th9 ptsxG 1.01

FormDLDDW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	6.4%	5.3%	3.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
1	10.0%	11.4%	5.5%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
2	9.7%	9.8%	5.1%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
3	6.0%	6.0%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	2.7%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.0%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Fulham win

55.9%

Draw

24.0%

Hull win

20.1%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 6 times in the Premier League era — Fulham 1, draws 1, Hull 4 — with Fulham 1–1–1 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Hull’s 0-1 win in this fixture in March 2009, a 18% chance on the day.

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	UCL	UEL	UECL	Releg
1	Manchester City	82.6	69–95	55.1%55.1%	99.5%99.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
2	Arsenal	80.4	68–92	37.9%37.9%	99.2%99.2%	0.5%0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
3	Brighton and Hove Albion	67.8	55–81	3.6%3.6%	80.1%80.1%	8.3%8.3%	4.8%4.8%	0.0%
4	Chelsea	63.9	48–80	2.6%2.6%	60.9%60.9%	10.6%10.6%	7.5%7.5%	0.4%
5	Brentford	60.8	49–73	0.4%	47.1%47.1%	15.1%15.1%	11.9%11.9%	0.1%
6	Liverpool	60.4	48–73	0.3%	44.2%44.2%	14.9%14.9%	12.0%12.0%	0.1%
7	Manchester United	55.6	43–68	0.0%	21.3%21.3%	13.1%13.1%	13.4%13.4%	0.7%0.7%
8	Leeds United	55.2	43–68	0.1%	19.9%19.9%	11.7%11.7%	13.0%13.0%	1.0%1.0%
9	Newcastle United	51.5	38–65	0.0%	9.7%9.7%	7.1%7.1%	9.7%9.7%	3.7%3.7%
10	Everton	49.1	37–61	0.0%	4.8%4.8%	4.4%4.4%	6.7%6.7%	4.9%4.9%
11	Aston Villa	46.9	33–61	0.0%	4.7%4.7%	3.8%3.8%	4.9%4.9%	12.4%12.4%
12	AFC Bournemouth	44.9	33–57	0.0%	1.5%1.5%	1.9%1.9%	2.8%2.8%	13.6%13.6%
13	Tottenham Hotspur	44.8	31–59	0.0%	2.6%2.6%	2.5%2.5%	3.7%3.7%	17.2%17.2%
14	Crystal Palace	44.1	32–57	0.0%	1.5%1.5%	1.8%1.8%	2.5%2.5%	17.5%17.5%
15	Nottingham Forest	42.9	31–55	0.0%	1.1%1.1%	1.1%1.1%	2.1%2.1%	20.6%20.6%
16	Fulham	42.2	30–55	0.0%	0.8%0.8%	1.0%1.0%	2.0%2.0%	22.5%22.5%
17	Sunderland	42.1	31–54	0.0%	0.6%0.6%	0.8%0.8%	1.4%1.4%	23.4%23.4%
18	Hull City	38.7	27–52	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%0.6%	0.8%0.8%	42.4%42.4%
19	Ipswich Town	37.9	26–51	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%0.6%	47.9%47.9%
20	Coventry City	33.0	21–46	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	71.7%71.7%

Race tracker

How each race has moved. Hover a line to follow one club; expand a card for the full field.

Title race

top 5 of 7 in the race

Champions League

top 5 of 13 in the race

Relegation battle

top 5 of 14 in the race

Position probability heatmap

Chance of each final position, teams sorted by expected points. Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Man City	55	31	9	3	1
Arsenal	38	44	13	4	1	1
Brighton	4	12	30	21	13	8	5	3	1	1	1
Chelsea	3	7	18	19	14	11	7	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1
Brentford		2	10	17	17	15	12	9	6	4	2	2	1	1
Liverpool		2	10	15	17	15	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	1
Man United			3	7	10	13	13	12	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1
Leeds			3	7	10	12	13	12	11	9	7	6	4	3	2	2	1	1
Newcastle			1	3	5	7	10	10	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	4	3	2	1	1
Everton				1	3	4	7	8	10	11	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	3	2	1
Aston Villa			1	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3
Bournemouth					1	2	3	4	6	7	8	10	10	10	9	9	8	6	5	3
Tottenham				1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4
Palace					1	2	2	4	5	6	8	8	9	10	10	9	8	8	6	4
Forest					1	1	2	3	4	6	7	7	8	10	10	10	10	9	7	4
Fulham					1	1	2	3	4	5	7	7	8	9	10	11	10	9	8	5
Sunderland						1	1	3	3	5	6	7	8	10	10	11	11	10	8	5
Hull						1	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	7	8	9	12	13	15	14
Ipswich							1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	12	14	17	17
Coventry									1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	12	20	40

Golden boot

Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is the goals still expected over the remaining fixtures; "Share" is the player's share of his club's goals. Bar length compares to the projected leader.

	Player	Team	Goals	+rem	Proj total	Share	A
1	Haaland	Manchester City	6	+23.8	29.8	35%	0
2	João Pedro	Chelsea	5	+12.7	17.7	22%	3
3	Isak	Liverpool	4	+13.7	17.7	26%	0
4	Rogers	Chelsea	4	+12.8	16.8	22%	1
5	Cherki	Manchester City	4	+11.9	15.9	17%	2
6	Mbeumo	Manchester United	3	+11.6	14.6	22%	1
7	Saka	Arsenal	3	+11.2	14.2	18%	0
8	Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	2	+10.9	12.9	23%	1
9	B.Fernandes	Manchester United	3	+9.9	12.9	19%	1
10	Semenyo	Manchester City	2	+10.6	12.6	15%	3
11	Tavernier	Bournemouth	3	+9.3	12.3	20%	0
12	Schade	Brentford	3	+8.5	11.5	16%	2
13	Brobbey	Sunderland	3	+8.4	11.4	22%	0
14	Gibbs-White	Nottingham Forest	1	+9.9	10.9	25%	2
15	Barry	Everton	3	+7.8	10.8	19%	0

Defence

Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected addition from the remaining fixtures; "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.

	Team	GP	CS	+rem	Proj CS	GA	+rem	Proj GA	CS rate	GA/g
1	Arsenal	38	3	+13.2	16.2	5	+28.9	33.9	43%	0.89
2	Manchester City	38	3	+11.4	14.4	5	+33.7	38.7	38%	1.02
3	Brighton	38	4	+9.8	13.8	5	+39.7	44.7	36%	1.18
4	Liverpool	38	3	+8.9	11.9	7	+42.5	49.5	31%	1.30
5	Brentford	38	2	+9.1	11.1	6	+42.0	48.0	29%	1.26
6	Leeds United	38	2	+8.7	10.7	5	+43.2	48.2	28%	1.27
7	Everton	38	3	+7.5	10.5	5	+48.3	53.3	28%	1.40
8	Tottenham	38	2	+7.5	9.5	9	+48.1	57.1	25%	1.50
9	Hull City	38	3	+5.9	8.9	6	+56.4	62.4	23%	1.64
10	Chelsea	38	0	+8.8	8.8	13	+42.4	55.4	23%	1.46
11	Sunderland	38	1	+7.6	8.6	12	+48.3	60.3	23%	1.59
12	Fulham	38	1	+7.5	8.5	10	+48.3	58.3	22%	1.53
13	Newcastle United	38	1	+7.4	8.4	13	+48.4	61.4	22%	1.62
14	Aston Villa	38	1	+7.4	8.4	11	+49.0	60.0	22%	1.58
15	Nottingham Forest	38	1	+7.4	8.4	8	+48.8	56.8	22%	1.49
16	Manchester United	38	0	+8.3	8.3	9	+44.8	53.8	22%	1.42
17	Crystal Palace	38	1	+6.8	7.8	12	+51.6	63.6	21%	1.67
18	Bournemouth	38	0	+7.4	7.4	13	+49.8	62.8	20%	1.65
19	Coventry City	38	1	+5.2	6.2	11	+59.6	70.6	16%	1.86
20	Ipswich Town	38	0	+5.3	5.3	12	+61.7	73.7	14%	1.94