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World Cup 2026 Standings & Projections

Archived — tournament completed July 19, 2026 · 48 teams · 104 matches · United States, Mexico & Canada · 104 of 104 matches played · updated July 31, 2026

🇪🇸 Spain 100%

Tournament odds — all 48 teams

Probability of reaching each stage. "Advance" is qualification for the round of 32 by any route (top two or one of the eight best third-placed teams). "Rtg" is the team's strength rating. Cell shading is scaled to the best team in each column.

	Team	Grp	Rtg	xPts	Advance	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
1	🇪🇸 Spain	H	2125	7.0	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	🇦🇷 Argentina	J	2088	9.0	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	—
3	🇫🇷 France	I	2070	9.0	100%	100%	100%	100%	—	—
4	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	L	2032	7.0	100%	100%	100%	100%	—	—
5	🇨🇭 Switzerland	B	1875	7.0	100%	100%	100%	—	—	—
6	🇲🇦 Morocco	C	1872	7.0	100%	100%	100%	—	—	—
7	🇧🇪 Belgium	G	1910	5.0	100%	100%	100%	—	—	—
8	🇳🇴 Norway	I	1884	6.0	100%	100%	100%	—	—	—
9	🇲🇽 Mexico	A	1874	9.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
10	🇿🇦 South Africa	A	1562	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
11	🇰🇷 South Korea	A	1759	3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	🇨🇿 Czechia	A	1732	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	🇨🇦 Canada	B	1781	4.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
14	🇧🇦 Bosnia	B	1628	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
15	🇶🇦 Qatar	B	1513	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	🇧🇷 Brazil	C	1998	7.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
17	🇭🇹 Haiti	C	1529	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	C	1754	3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	🇺🇸 USA	D	1795	6.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
20	🇵🇾 Paraguay	D	1783	4.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
21	🇦🇺 Australia	D	1751	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
22	🇹🇷 Turkey	D	1876	3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	🇩🇪 Germany	E	1950	6.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
24	🇨🇼 Curacao	E	1467	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	E	1719	6.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
26	🇪🇨 Ecuador	E	1886	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
27	🇳🇱 Netherlands	F	1954	7.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
28	🇯🇵 Japan	F	1892	5.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
29	🇸🇪 Sweden	F	1738	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
30	🇹🇳 Tunisia	F	1648	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	🇪🇬 Egypt	G	1719	5.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
32	🇮🇷 Iran	G	1756	3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	🇳🇿 New Zealand	G	1555	1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	H	1583	3.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
35	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	H	1588	2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	🇺🇾 Uruguay	H	1880	2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	🇸🇳 Senegal	I	1869	3.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
38	🇮🇶 Iraq	I	1621	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	🇩🇿 Algeria	J	1756	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
40	🇦🇹 Austria	J	1812	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
41	🇯🇴 Jordan	J	1642	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
42	🇵🇹 Portugal	K	1997	5.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
43	🇨🇩 DR Congo	K	1657	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
44	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	K	1676	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
45	🇨🇴 Colombia	K	1946	7.0	100%	100%	—	—	—	—
46	🇭🇷 Croatia	L	1895	6.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
47	🇬🇭 Ghana	L	1557	4.0	100%	—	—	—	—	—
48	🇵🇦 Panama	L	1701	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—

Most likely bracket

The single most probable complete path through the tournament, group order to final. Percentages are each side's chance of winning that matchup, extra time and penalties included. It is a best single guess, not a forecast — the odds board above is the probability view.

Round of 32

M74 · Jun 29 · FT

🇩🇪 Germany4

🇵🇾 Paraguay5

M77 · Jun 30 · FT

🇫🇷 France3

🇸🇪 Sweden0

M73 · Jun 28 · FT

🇿🇦 South Africa0

🇨🇦 Canada1

M75 · Jun 29 · FT

🇳🇱 Netherlands3

🇲🇦 Morocco4

M83 · Jul 2 · FT

🇵🇹 Portugal2

🇭🇷 Croatia1

M84 · Jul 2 · FT

🇪🇸 Spain3

🇦🇹 Austria0

M81 · Jul 1 · FT

🇺🇸 USA2

🇧🇦 Bosnia0

M82 · Jul 1 · FT

🇧🇪 Belgium3

🇸🇳 Senegal2

Round of 16

M89 · Jul 4 · FT

🇵🇾 Paraguay0

🇫🇷 France1

M90 · Jul 4 · FT

🇨🇦 Canada0

🇲🇦 Morocco3

M93 · Jul 6 · FT

🇵🇹 Portugal0

🇪🇸 Spain1

M94 · Jul 6 · FT

🇺🇸 USA1

🇧🇪 Belgium4

Quarter-final

M97 · Jul 9 · FT

🇫🇷 France2

🇲🇦 Morocco0

M98 · Jul 10 · FT

🇪🇸 Spain2

🇧🇪 Belgium1

Semi-final

M101 · Jul 14 · FT

🇫🇷 France0

🇪🇸 Spain2

Final

Champion

🇪🇸 Spain

beat Argentina 1–0 in the final

M104 · Jul 19 · FT

🇪🇸 Spain1

🇦🇷 Argentina0

Semi-final

M102 · Jul 15 · FT

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England1

🇦🇷 Argentina2

Quarter-final

M99 · Jul 11 · FT

🇳🇴 Norway1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2

M100 · Jul 11 · FT

🇦🇷 Argentina3

🇨🇭 Switzerland1

Round of 16

M91 · Jul 5 · FT

🇧🇷 Brazil1

🇳🇴 Norway2

M92 · Jul 5 · FT

🇲🇽 Mexico2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England3

M95 · Jul 7 · FT

🇦🇷 Argentina3

🇪🇬 Egypt2

M96 · Jul 7 · FT

🇨🇭 Switzerland4

🇨🇴 Colombia3

Round of 32

M76 · Jun 29 · FT

🇧🇷 Brazil2

🇯🇵 Japan1

M78 · Jun 30 · FT

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast1

🇳🇴 Norway2

M79 · Jun 30 · FT

🇲🇽 Mexico2

🇪🇨 Ecuador0

M80 · Jul 1 · FT

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2

🇨🇩 DR Congo1

M86 · Jul 3 · FT

🇦🇷 Argentina3

🇨🇻 Cape Verde2

M88 · Jul 3 · FT

🇦🇺 Australia3

🇪🇬 Egypt5

M85 · Jul 2 · FT

🇨🇭 Switzerland2

🇩🇿 Algeria0

M87 · Jul 3 · FT

🇨🇴 Colombia1

🇬🇭 Ghana0

Third place: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England beat 🇫🇷 France 6–4 (July 18, Miami Gardens).

Dark horses

Best semi-final odds among teams outside the blended-rating top ten.

🇲🇽 Mexico

Group A · Rtg 1874 · FIFA #14

Semi-final—

Final—

Champion—

🇿🇦 South Africa

Group A · Rtg 1562 · FIFA #60

Semi-final—

Final—

Champion—

🇰🇷 South Korea

Group A · Rtg 1759 · FIFA #25

Semi-final—

Final—

Champion—

🇨🇿 Czechia

Group A · Rtg 1732 · FIFA #39

Semi-final—

Final—

Champion—

🇨🇦 Canada

Group B · Rtg 1781 · FIFA #30

Semi-final—

Final—

Champion—

Most likely finals

Pairing (July 19, MetLife Stadium)	Probability
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇪🇸 Spain	100%

Group projections & match predictions

Played matches show the final score; the dimmed bar is the pre-match forecast. Standings columns split into finish in group — the probability of placing first, second, or third — and advance, where the “3rd” column is the chance of taking one of the eight best third-placed slots and “tot” is the chance of reaching the Round of 32 by any route. Every match shows win/draw/win probabilities and the single most likely scoreline (with its probability). Bars read left-to-right as first-listed team / draw / second-listed team. Host nations get a home-Elo bump in their own country — note Mexico's group games are all in Mexico, while Group A's other three teams meet on neutral ground.

first-listed team wins draw second-listed team wins

Group A

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇲🇽 Mexico	1874	3	9	+6	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇿🇦 South Africa	1562	3	4	-1	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇰🇷 South Korea	1759	3	3	-1	—	—	100%	—	—
🇨🇿 Czechia	1732	3	1	-4	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 11	🇲🇽 Mexico	v	🇿🇦 South Africa	80% 17%	2–0FT
Jun 11	🇰🇷 South Korea	v	🇨🇿 Czechia	41% 26% 33%	2–1FT
Jun 18	🇨🇿 Czechia	v	🇿🇦 South Africa	56% 26% 18%	1–1FT
Jun 18	🇲🇽 Mexico	v	🇰🇷 South Korea	65% 23% 12%	1–0FT
Jun 24	🇨🇿 Czechia	v	🇲🇽 Mexico	10% 20% 70%	0–3FT
Jun 24	🇿🇦 South Africa	v	🇰🇷 South Korea	16% 26% 58%	1–0FT

Group B

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇨🇭 Switzerland	1875	3	7	+4	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇨🇦 Canada	1781	3	4	+5	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇧🇦 Bosnia	1628	3	4	-1	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇶🇦 Qatar	1513	3	1	-8	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 12	🇨🇦 Canada	v	🇧🇦 Bosnia	65% 24% 10%	1–1FT
Jun 13	🇶🇦 Qatar	v	🇨🇭 Switzerland	11% 86%	1–1FT
Jun 18	🇨🇭 Switzerland	v	🇧🇦 Bosnia	71% 19% 10%	4–1FT
Jun 18	🇨🇦 Canada	v	🇶🇦 Qatar	81% 16%	6–0FT
Jun 24	🇨🇭 Switzerland	v	🇨🇦 Canada	35% 30% 35%	2–1FT
Jun 24	🇧🇦 Bosnia	v	🇶🇦 Qatar	55% 25% 20%	3–1FT

Group C

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇧🇷 Brazil	1998	3	7	+6	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇲🇦 Morocco	1872	3	7	+3	—	100%	—	—	100%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	1754	3	3	-3	—	—	100%	—	—
🇭🇹 Haiti	1529	3	0	-6	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 13	🇭🇹 Haiti	v	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	13% 20% 67%	0–1FT
Jun 13	🇧🇷 Brazil	v	🇲🇦 Morocco	51% 28% 22%	1–1FT
Jun 19	🇧🇷 Brazil	v	🇭🇹 Haiti	93%	3–0FT
Jun 19	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	v	🇲🇦 Morocco	19% 27% 53%	0–1FT
Jun 24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	v	🇧🇷 Brazil	9% 17% 74%	0–3FT
Jun 24	🇲🇦 Morocco	v	🇭🇹 Haiti	79% 16%	4–2FT

Group D

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇺🇸 USA	1795	3	6	+4	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇦🇺 Australia	1751	3	4	+0	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇵🇾 Paraguay	1783	3	4	-2	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇹🇷 Turkey	1876	3	3	-2	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 12	🇺🇸 USA	v	🇵🇾 Paraguay	50% 27% 23%	4–1FT
Jun 13	🇦🇺 Australia	v	🇹🇷 Turkey	23% 26% 51%	2–0FT
Jun 19	🇹🇷 Turkey	v	🇵🇾 Paraguay	45% 28% 27%	0–1FT
Jun 19	🇺🇸 USA	v	🇦🇺 Australia	56% 25% 19%	2–0FT
Jun 25	🇹🇷 Turkey	v	🇺🇸 USA	33% 25% 42%	3–2FT
Jun 25	🇵🇾 Paraguay	v	🇦🇺 Australia	39% 32% 29%	0–0FT

Group E

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇩🇪 Germany	1950	3	6	+6	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	1719	3	6	+2	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇪🇨 Ecuador	1886	3	4	+0	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇨🇼 Curacao	1467	3	1	-8	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 14	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	v	🇪🇨 Ecuador	18% 31% 51%	1–0FT
Jun 14	🇩🇪 Germany	v	🇨🇼 Curacao	94%	7–1FT
Jun 20	🇩🇪 Germany	v	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	67% 22% 12%	2–1FT
Jun 20	🇪🇨 Ecuador	v	🇨🇼 Curacao	85% 13%	0–0FT
Jun 25	🇨🇼 Curacao	v	🇨🇮 Ivory Coast	10% 21% 69%	0–2FT
Jun 25	🇪🇨 Ecuador	v	🇩🇪 Germany	27% 29% 44%	2–1FT

Group F

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇳🇱 Netherlands	1954	3	7	+6	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇯🇵 Japan	1892	3	5	+4	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇸🇪 Sweden	1738	3	4	+0	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇹🇳 Tunisia	1648	3	0	-10	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 14	🇳🇱 Netherlands	v	🇯🇵 Japan	43% 27% 30%	2–2FT
Jun 14	🇸🇪 Sweden	v	🇹🇳 Tunisia	50% 26% 24%	5–1FT
Jun 20	🇳🇱 Netherlands	v	🇸🇪 Sweden	72% 17% 12%	5–1FT
Jun 20	🇹🇳 Tunisia	v	🇯🇵 Japan	10% 23% 68%	0–4FT
Jun 25	🇯🇵 Japan	v	🇸🇪 Sweden	62% 22% 17%	1–1FT
Jun 25	🇹🇳 Tunisia	v	🇳🇱 Netherlands	17% 77%	1–3FT

Group G

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇧🇪 Belgium	1910	3	5	+4	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇪🇬 Egypt	1719	3	5	+2	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇮🇷 Iran	1756	3	3	+0	—	—	100%	—	—
🇳🇿 New Zealand	1555	3	1	-6	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 15	🇮🇷 Iran	v	🇳🇿 New Zealand	60% 24% 16%	2–2FT
Jun 15	🇧🇪 Belgium	v	🇪🇬 Egypt	61% 25% 14%	1–1FT
Jun 21	🇧🇪 Belgium	v	🇮🇷 Iran	62% 22% 16%	0–0FT
Jun 21	🇳🇿 New Zealand	v	🇪🇬 Egypt	20% 29% 52%	1–3FT
Jun 26	🇪🇬 Egypt	v	🇮🇷 Iran	30% 31% 38%	1–1FT
Jun 26	🇳🇿 New Zealand	v	🇧🇪 Belgium	13% 84%	1–5FT

Group H

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇪🇸 Spain	2125	3	7	+5	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇨🇻 Cape Verde	1583	3	3	+0	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇺🇾 Uruguay	1880	3	2	-1	—	—	100%	—	—
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	1588	3	2	-4	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 15	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	v	🇺🇾 Uruguay	26% 66%	1–1FT
Jun 15	🇪🇸 Spain	v	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	93%	0–0FT
Jun 21	🇺🇾 Uruguay	v	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	70% 22%	2–2FT
Jun 21	🇪🇸 Spain	v	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	90% 9%	4–0FT
Jun 26	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	v	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	31% 33% 36%	0–0FT
Jun 26	🇺🇾 Uruguay	v	🇪🇸 Spain	11% 23% 65%	0–1FT

Group I

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇫🇷 France	2070	3	9	+8	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇳🇴 Norway	1884	3	6	+1	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇸🇳 Senegal	1869	3	3	+2	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇮🇶 Iraq	1621	3	0	-11	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 16	🇫🇷 France	v	🇸🇳 Senegal	63% 23% 14%	3–1FT
Jun 16	🇮🇶 Iraq	v	🇳🇴 Norway	9% 19% 72%	1–4FT
Jun 22	🇳🇴 Norway	v	🇸🇳 Senegal	41% 26% 33%	3–2FT
Jun 22	🇫🇷 France	v	🇮🇶 Iraq	86% 12%	3–0FT
Jun 26	🇳🇴 Norway	v	🇫🇷 France	16% 20% 64%	1–4FT
Jun 26	🇸🇳 Senegal	v	🇮🇶 Iraq	64% 25% 11%	5–0FT

Group J

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇦🇷 Argentina	2088	3	9	+7	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇦🇹 Austria	1812	3	4	+0	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇩🇿 Algeria	1756	3	4	-2	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇯🇴 Jordan	1642	3	0	-5	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 16	🇦🇷 Argentina	v	🇩🇿 Algeria	78% 17%	3–0FT
Jun 16	🇦🇹 Austria	v	🇯🇴 Jordan	64% 22% 14%	3–1FT
Jun 22	🇦🇷 Argentina	v	🇦🇹 Austria	70% 21% 9%	2–0FT
Jun 22	🇯🇴 Jordan	v	🇩🇿 Algeria	21% 25% 54%	1–2FT
Jun 27	🇩🇿 Algeria	v	🇦🇹 Austria	27% 28% 45%	3–3FT
Jun 27	🇯🇴 Jordan	v	🇦🇷 Argentina	9% 90%	1–3FT

Group K

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🇨🇴 Colombia	1946	3	7	+3	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇵🇹 Portugal	1997	3	5	+5	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇨🇩 DR Congo	1657	3	4	+1	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	1676	3	0	-9	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 17	🇵🇹 Portugal	v	🇨🇩 DR Congo	79% 17%	1–1FT
Jun 17	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	v	🇨🇴 Colombia	20% 71%	1–3FT
Jun 23	🇵🇹 Portugal	v	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	78% 17%	5–0FT
Jun 23	🇨🇴 Colombia	v	🇨🇩 DR Congo	72% 20%	1–0FT
Jun 27	🇨🇴 Colombia	v	🇵🇹 Portugal	31% 25% 44%	0–0FT
Jun 27	🇨🇩 DR Congo	v	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	31% 35% 34%	3–1FT

Group L

Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	Finish in group			Advance
Team	Rtg	P	Pts	GD	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	Tot
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	2032	3	7	+4	100%	—	—	—	100%
🇭🇷 Croatia	1895	3	6	+0	—	100%	—	—	100%
🇬🇭 Ghana	1557	3	4	+0	—	—	100%	100%	100%
🇵🇦 Panama	1701	3	0	-4	—	—	—	—	—

Jun 17	🇬🇭 Ghana	v	🇵🇦 Panama	22% 26% 52%	1–0FT
Jun 17	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	v	🇭🇷 Croatia	55% 25% 20%	4–2FT
Jun 23	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	v	🇬🇭 Ghana	87% 11%	0–0FT
Jun 23	🇵🇦 Panama	v	🇭🇷 Croatia	13% 20% 67%	0–1FT
Jun 27	🇵🇦 Panama	v	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	15% 80%	0–2FT
Jun 27	🇭🇷 Croatia	v	🇬🇭 Ghana	79% 16%	2–1FT