World Cup 2026 Standings & Projections

Today's matches

No matches today. Next up: knockout fixture (Third place) on Saturday, July 18.

Tournament odds — all 48 teams

Probability of reaching each stage. "Advance" is qualification for the round of 32 by any route (top two or one of the eight best third-placed teams). "Rtg" is the team's strength rating. Cell shading is scaled to the best team in each column.

Most likely bracket

The single most probable path through the tournament. Group order and third-place slots (FIFA's Annex C table) come from the simulations; the knockout winners are then chosen by a dynamic program that maximizes the joint probability of every game in the bracket — the globally most-likely complete bracket, not a round-by-round chain of local favorites. Percentages are each side's chance of winning that specific matchup (extra time and penalties included), using each team's rating updated for its results so far — so the bracket reflects in-tournament form, consistent with the odds board. It is a best single guess, not a forecast — the odds board above is the authoritative probability view.

Two different questions: this most-likely path crowns Argentina, while the odds board’s outright favorite is Spain. The most probable single bracket and the team that wins most often across all simulations need not agree — a team can be favored in the one likeliest story yet reach the final less often than a rival who wins more titles overall.

Third-place match (July 18, Miami Gardens): 🇫🇷 France vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England — France favored at 60%.

Dark horses

Best semi-final odds among teams outside the blended-rating top ten.

Most likely finals

Group projections & match predictions

Played matches show the final score (the dimmed bar is the pre-match forecast); standings sort by actual points, and all probability columns are conditioned on results so far. Standings columns split into finish in group — the probability of placing first, second, or third — and advance, where the “3rd” column is the chance of taking one of the eight best third-placed slots and “tot” is the chance of reaching the Round of 32 by any route. Every match shows win/draw/win probabilities and the single most likely scoreline (with its probability). Bars read left-to-right as first-listed team / draw / second-listed team. Host nations get a home-Elo bump in their own country — note Mexico's group games are all in Mexico, while Group A's other three teams meet on neutral ground.