For the first time in years the numbers have a clear favourite, and it is Arsenal. A 59% title probability dwarfs Man City's 30%, and the gap says less about a runaway squad than about everyone else's summer of upheaval.
The caveat writes itself: a knock to a key defender, a slow start, and that number moves fast. Favourites in July still have to prove it in February.
Tottenham Hotspur have been the summer's busiest spenders at £237m, rebuilding the spine around Sandro Tonali (£100m) and Mateus Fernandes (£85m) — a dramatic response to a season that ended 17th, one place above relegation.
The model rewards the outlay — up from 17th to a projected 7th — but that's a climb toward mid-table, not a leap into the elite. Big money buys headlines; it doesn't buy a settled team overnight.
Every window has a story, and Liverpool's is one of departures. Mohamed Salah leaves as a free agent, Ibrahima Konaté and Andy Robertson follow him out, and the incomings — Jacquet, Muñoz — are talent for the future, not straight swaps.
The model hasn't panicked — Liverpool still project 3rd — but after a 5th-place finish last season the margin is thin: a 4% title shot. This is a top-four side reshaping on the run, not reloading.
Coventry, Hull and Ipswich arrive to the usual welcome: the bookmakers' bottom three and a model that agrees. None is given better than even odds of survival.
History says one of them usually beats the projection. The question every August is which — and each has spent like a side that means to stay up, not just make up the numbers.