Opponent, venue and clean-sheet probability, sorted by average over the window you choose.
The small grey number is FPL’s own 1–5 difficulty rating for that fixture. A purple outline marks a fixture where the model and that rating disagree by two bands or more — hover it for both verdicts.
| Team | Avg | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 42% | Forest (A)349% | Everton (H)350% | Liverpool (A)433% | Hull (H)255% | Newcastle (A)332% | Man City (H)432% | Brentford (A)332% | Tottenham (A)339% |
| Man City | 36% | Ipswich (H)243% | Aston Villa (A)333% | Brighton (H)330% | Forest (A)347% | Fulham (H)245% | Arsenal (A)521% | Leeds (H)339% | Brentford (A)328% |
| Chelsea | 30% | Everton (A)325% | Tottenham (H)229% | Man United (H)425% | Sunderland (A)333% | Leeds (H)330% | Forest (A)338% | Palace (H)232% | Liverpool (H)422% |
| Leeds | 30% | Man United (H)427% | Sunderland (A)331% | Bournemouth (A)325% | Tottenham (H)233% | Chelsea (A)416% | Coventry (H)247% | Man City (A)510% | Ipswich (H)240% |
| Brighton | 29% | Palace (H)240% | Liverpool (A)418% | Man City (A)511% | Brentford (H)332% | Hull (A)235% | Newcastle (H)338% | Bournemouth (A)326% | Forest (A)338% |
| Tottenham | 28% | Coventry (H)242% | Chelsea (A)415% | Palace (H)228% | Leeds (A)321% | Ipswich (H)233% | Sunderland (A)330% | Fulham (H)232% | Arsenal (H)417% |
| Brentford | 27% | Liverpool (H)424% | Hull (A)235% | Forest (H)328% | Brighton (A)417% | Everton (H)338% | Man United (A)417% | Arsenal (H)424% | Man City (H)420% |
| Fulham | 25% | Hull (H)236% | Coventry (A)230% | Aston Villa (A)322% | Newcastle (H)328% | Man City (A)59% | Bournemouth (H)324% | Tottenham (A)322% | Everton (A)323% |
| Liverpool | 25% | Brentford (A)321% | Brighton (H)325% | Arsenal (H)422% | Palace (A)329% | Man United (H)426% | Everton (A)326% | Sunderland (H)335% | Chelsea (A)417% |
| Sunderland | 25% | Bournemouth (A)322% | Leeds (H)329% | Coventry (A)228% | Chelsea (H)419% | Aston Villa (A)320% | Tottenham (H)229% | Liverpool (A)415% | Newcastle (A)314% |
| Bournemouth | 23% | Sunderland (H)332% | Man United (A)411% | Leeds (H)331% | Ipswich (A)223% | Forest (H)325% | Fulham (A)314% | Brighton (H)322% | Hull (H)239% |
| Palace | 23% | Brighton (A)413% | Newcastle (H)325% | Tottenham (A)320% | Liverpool (H)417% | Coventry (A)229% | Hull (H)233% | Chelsea (A)413% | Aston Villa (A)320% |
| Aston Villa | 22% | Newcastle (A)317% | Man City (H)414% | Fulham (H)231% | Man United (A)414% | Sunderland (H)328% | Ipswich (A)230% | Everton (H)329% | Palace (H)227% |
| Man United | 22% | Leeds (A)322% | Bournemouth (H)324% | Chelsea (A)416% | Aston Villa (H)328% | Liverpool (A)420% | Brentford (H)324% | Newcastle (A)318% | Coventry (H)244% |
| Newcastle | 22% | Aston Villa (H)323% | Palace (A)326% | Everton (H)330% | Fulham (A)322% | Arsenal (H)416% | Brighton (A)415% | Man United (H)420% | Sunderland (H)328% |
| Everton | 21% | Chelsea (H)418% | Arsenal (A)513% | Newcastle (A)318% | Coventry (H)241% | Brentford (A)318% | Liverpool (H)419% | Aston Villa (A)324% | Fulham (H)233% |
| Forest | 20% | Arsenal (H)419% | Ipswich (A)228% | Brentford (A)317% | Man City (H)414% | Bournemouth (A)323% | Chelsea (H)417% | Hull (A)232% | Brighton (H)319% |
| Coventry | 19% | Tottenham (A)314% | Fulham (H)225% | Sunderland (H)322% | Everton (A)316% | Palace (H)222% | Leeds (A)314% | Ipswich (H)226% | Man United (A)49% |
| Hull | 17% | Fulham (A)316% | Brentford (H)317% | Ipswich (H)229% | Arsenal (A)58% | Brighton (H)315% | Palace (A)320% | Forest (H)317% | Bournemouth (A)318% |
| Ipswich | 17% | Man City (A)55% | Forest (H)320% | Hull (A)221% | Bournemouth (H)319% | Tottenham (A)313% | Aston Villa (H)321% | Coventry (A)220% | Leeds (A)311% |
Expected goals per fixture, sorted by average over the window you choose.
Purple outlines mark model–FDR disagreements here too, through the attacking lens.
| Team | Avg | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 2.14 | Ipswich (H)23.12 | Aston Villa (A)32.01 | Brighton (H)32.21 | Forest (A)31.94 | Fulham (H)22.43 | Arsenal (A)51.14 | Leeds (H)32.32 | Brentford (A)31.63 |
| Arsenal | 1.87 | Forest (A)31.67 | Everton (H)32.08 | Liverpool (A)41.53 | Hull (H)22.56 | Newcastle (A)31.82 | Man City (H)41.58 | Brentford (A)31.45 | Tottenham (A)31.79 |
| Chelsea | 1.78 | Everton (A)31.72 | Tottenham (H)21.87 | Man United (H)41.82 | Sunderland (A)31.66 | Leeds (H)31.86 | Forest (A)31.75 | Palace (H)22.07 | Liverpool (H)41.77 |
| Brighton | 1.70 | Palace (H)22.05 | Liverpool (A)41.37 | Man City (A)51.20 | Brentford (H)31.79 | Hull (A)21.91 | Newcastle (H)31.87 | Bournemouth (A)31.50 | Forest (A)31.64 |
| Man United | 1.67 | Leeds (A)31.31 | Bournemouth (H)32.24 | Chelsea (A)41.41 | Aston Villa (H)31.93 | Liverpool (A)41.33 | Brentford (H)31.79 | Newcastle (A)31.59 | Coventry (H)22.37 |
| Brentford | 1.57 | Liverpool (H)41.58 | Hull (A)21.79 | Forest (H)31.77 | Brighton (A)41.15 | Everton (H)31.71 | Man United (A)41.45 | Arsenal (H)41.14 | Man City (H)41.27 |
| Liverpool | 1.54 | Brentford (A)31.41 | Brighton (H)31.67 | Arsenal (H)41.11 | Palace (A)31.79 | Man United (H)41.63 | Everton (A)31.66 | Sunderland (H)31.88 | Chelsea (A)41.53 |
| Tottenham | 1.52 | Coventry (H)21.91 | Chelsea (A)41.22 | Palace (H)21.60 | Leeds (A)31.12 | Ipswich (H)22.05 | Sunderland (A)31.23 | Fulham (H)21.50 | Arsenal (H)40.95 |
| Bournemouth | 1.48 | Sunderland (H)31.55 | Man United (A)41.42 | Leeds (H)31.40 | Ipswich (A)21.64 | Forest (H)31.46 | Fulham (A)31.42 | Brighton (H)31.34 | Hull (H)21.70 |
| Leeds | 1.45 | Man United (H)41.51 | Sunderland (A)31.23 | Bournemouth (A)31.18 | Tottenham (H)21.57 | Chelsea (A)41.20 | Coventry (H)21.99 | Man City (A)50.94 | Ipswich (H)22.22 |
| Fulham | 1.44 | Hull (H)21.83 | Coventry (A)21.38 | Aston Villa (A)31.18 | Newcastle (H)31.53 | Man City (A)50.80 | Bournemouth (H)31.93 | Tottenham (A)31.14 | Everton (A)31.12 |
| Aston Villa | 1.41 | Newcastle (A)31.46 | Man City (H)41.11 | Fulham (H)21.49 | Man United (A)41.27 | Sunderland (H)31.61 | Ipswich (A)21.54 | Everton (H)31.43 | Palace (H)21.59 |
| Newcastle | 1.38 | Aston Villa (H)31.75 | Palace (A)31.40 | Everton (H)31.74 | Fulham (A)31.29 | Arsenal (H)41.15 | Brighton (A)40.97 | Man United (H)41.70 | Sunderland (H)31.96 |
| Palace | 1.31 | Brighton (A)40.93 | Newcastle (H)31.34 | Tottenham (A)31.26 | Liverpool (H)41.24 | Coventry (A)21.53 | Hull (H)21.59 | Chelsea (A)41.13 | Aston Villa (A)31.30 |
| Sunderland | 1.23 | Bournemouth (A)31.12 | Leeds (H)31.18 | Coventry (A)21.50 | Chelsea (H)41.12 | Aston Villa (A)31.28 | Tottenham (H)21.20 | Liverpool (A)41.06 | Newcastle (A)31.26 |
| Everton | 1.23 | Chelsea (H)41.36 | Arsenal (A)50.70 | Newcastle (A)31.22 | Coventry (H)21.80 | Brentford (A)30.97 | Liverpool (H)41.34 | Aston Villa (A)31.24 | Fulham (H)21.48 |
| Ipswich | 1.18 | Man City (A)50.85 | Forest (H)31.26 | Hull (A)21.23 | Bournemouth (H)31.46 | Tottenham (A)31.09 | Aston Villa (H)31.20 | Coventry (A)21.34 | Leeds (A)30.91 |
| Forest | 1.11 | Arsenal (H)40.72 | Ipswich (A)21.63 | Brentford (A)31.26 | Man City (H)40.76 | Bournemouth (A)31.37 | Chelsea (H)40.96 | Hull (A)21.75 | Brighton (H)30.97 |
| Hull | 1.06 | Fulham (A)31.01 | Brentford (H)31.05 | Ipswich (H)21.57 | Arsenal (A)50.60 | Brighton (H)31.04 | Palace (A)31.11 | Forest (H)31.13 | Bournemouth (A)30.93 |
| Coventry | 1.04 | Tottenham (A)30.87 | Fulham (H)21.19 | Sunderland (H)31.27 | Everton (A)30.89 | Palace (H)21.25 | Leeds (A)30.75 | Ipswich (H)21.60 | Man United (A)40.83 |
FPL’s 1–5 difficulty next to the model’s own view of the same fixture on the same scale. Gaps of two or more are listed here and ringed in the grids above — these are the fixtures where planning by FDR alone is most likely to mislead.
| GW | Fixture | Lens | FPL says | Model says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW9 | Arsenal v Liverpool (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 4 | 1 (33% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW9 | Chelsea v Man United (H) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (1.82 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Arsenal v Forest (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (49% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Coventry v Tottenham (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (14% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Bournemouth v Sunderland (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (32% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Hull v Fulham (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (16% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Coventry v Tottenham (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (0.87 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Brentford v Liverpool (H) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 2 (1.58 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Sunderland v Bournemouth (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (1.12 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW7 | Hull v Fulham (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (1.01 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW8 | Arsenal v Everton (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (50% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW8 | Man City v Aston Villa (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (33% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |