Opponent, venue and clean-sheet probability, sorted by average over the window you choose.
The small grey number is FPL’s own 1–5 difficulty rating for that fixture. A purple outline marks a fixture where the model and that rating disagree by two bands or more — hover it for both verdicts.
| Team | Avg | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 44% | Chelsea (H)436% | Sunderland (A)348% | Brighton (A)335% | Leeds (H)249% | Forest (A)347% | Everton (H)348% | Liverpool (A)430% | Hull (H)258% |
| Man City | 36% | Coventry (H)251% | Man United (A)421% | Sunderland (H)249% | Liverpool (A)420% | Ipswich (H)250% | Aston Villa (A)428% | Brighton (H)236% | Forest (A)337% |
| Newcastle | 30% | Bournemouth (H)321% | Leeds (A)328% | Hull (H)238% | Coventry (A)239% | Aston Villa (H)323% | Palace (A)332% | Everton (H)327% | Fulham (A)326% |
| Brighton | 30% | Leeds (H)236% | Coventry (A)235% | Arsenal (H)424% | Sunderland (A)332% | Palace (H)338% | Liverpool (A)416% | Man City (A)510% | Brentford (H)333% |
| Brentford | 29% | Sunderland (H)242% | Bournemouth (A)325% | Chelsea (H)427% | Aston Villa (A)422% | Liverpool (H)424% | Hull (A)234% | Forest (H)334% | Brighton (A)319% |
| Liverpool | 28% | Ipswich (A)233% | Fulham (H)240% | Bournemouth (A)325% | Man City (H)422% | Brentford (A)318% | Brighton (H)229% | Arsenal (H)423% | Palace (A)330% |
| Tottenham | 27% | Forest (A)329% | Everton (H)334% | Aston Villa (H)326% | Man United (A)417% | Coventry (H)242% | Chelsea (A)416% | Palace (H)331% | Leeds (A)326% |
| Chelsea | 27% | Arsenal (A)515% | Hull (H)245% | Brentford (A)319% | Bournemouth (H)329% | Everton (A)326% | Tottenham (H)329% | Man United (H)426% | Sunderland (A)333% |
| Forest | 27% | Tottenham (H)329% | Aston Villa (A)418% | Coventry (H)242% | Palace (A)326% | Arsenal (H)418% | Ipswich (A)230% | Brentford (A)315% | Man City (H)417% |
| Fulham | 27% | Palace (H)330% | Liverpool (A)411% | Man United (H)423% | Ipswich (A)226% | Hull (H)242% | Coventry (A)229% | Aston Villa (A)416% | Newcastle (H)230% |
| Aston Villa | 26% | Hull (A)234% | Forest (H)330% | Tottenham (A)325% | Brentford (H)329% | Newcastle (A)319% | Man City (H)419% | Fulham (H)239% | Man United (A)416% |
| Palace | 25% | Fulham (A)323% | Ipswich (H)236% | Leeds (A)322% | Forest (H)324% | Brighton (A)317% | Newcastle (H)228% | Tottenham (A)323% | Liverpool (H)416% |
| Everton | 25% | Man United (H)421% | Tottenham (A)323% | Ipswich (H)236% | Hull (A)236% | Chelsea (H)419% | Arsenal (A)515% | Newcastle (A)320% | Coventry (H)241% |
| Leeds | 24% | Brighton (A)318% | Newcastle (H)230% | Palace (H)333% | Arsenal (A)510% | Man United (H)424% | Sunderland (A)327% | Bournemouth (A)320% | Tottenham (H)326% |
| Man United | 24% | Everton (A)328% | Man City (H)415% | Fulham (A)326% | Tottenham (H)323% | Leeds (A)326% | Bournemouth (H)323% | Chelsea (A)417% | Aston Villa (H)324% |
| Bournemouth | 20% | Newcastle (A)315% | Brentford (H)327% | Liverpool (H)418% | Chelsea (A)411% | Sunderland (H)238% | Man United (A)412% | Leeds (H)233% | Ipswich (A)227% |
| Sunderland | 19% | Brentford (A)315% | Arsenal (H)417% | Man City (A)57% | Brighton (H)222% | Bournemouth (A)320% | Leeds (H)230% | Coventry (A)231% | Chelsea (H)419% |
| Coventry | 17% | Man City (A)55% | Brighton (H)217% | Forest (A)317% | Newcastle (H)222% | Tottenham (A)312% | Fulham (H)228% | Sunderland (H)229% | Everton (A)313% |
| Ipswich | 16% | Liverpool (H)411% | Palace (A)320% | Everton (A)317% | Fulham (H)226% | Man City (A)55% | Forest (H)317% | Hull (A)226% | Bournemouth (H)317% |
| Hull | 15% | Aston Villa (H)319% | Chelsea (A)47% | Newcastle (A)310% | Everton (H)323% | Fulham (A)314% | Brentford (H)320% | Ipswich (H)230% | Arsenal (A)56% |
Expected goals per fixture, sorted by average over the window you choose.
Purple outlines mark model–FDR disagreements here too, through the attacking lens.
| Team | Avg | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 2.32 | Coventry (H)23.23 | Man United (A)41.90 | Sunderland (H)22.63 | Liverpool (A)41.53 | Ipswich (H)22.94 | Aston Villa (A)41.66 | Brighton (H)22.26 | Forest (A)31.78 |
| Liverpool | 1.84 | Ipswich (A)22.24 | Fulham (H)22.21 | Bournemouth (A)31.69 | Man City (H)41.60 | Brentford (A)31.42 | Brighton (H)21.85 | Arsenal (H)41.21 | Palace (A)31.83 |
| Arsenal | 1.84 | Chelsea (H)41.90 | Sunderland (A)31.79 | Brighton (A)31.44 | Leeds (H)22.26 | Forest (A)31.71 | Everton (H)31.91 | Liverpool (A)41.46 | Hull (H)22.78 |
| Chelsea | 1.78 | Arsenal (A)51.01 | Hull (H)22.64 | Brentford (A)31.30 | Bournemouth (H)32.23 | Everton (A)31.66 | Tottenham (H)31.82 | Man United (H)41.80 | Sunderland (A)31.67 |
| Man United | 1.65 | Everton (A)31.54 | Man City (H)41.56 | Fulham (A)31.48 | Tottenham (H)31.75 | Leeds (A)31.43 | Bournemouth (H)32.15 | Chelsea (A)41.33 | Aston Villa (H)31.86 |
| Newcastle | 1.65 | Bournemouth (H)31.90 | Leeds (A)31.20 | Hull (H)22.31 | Coventry (A)21.52 | Aston Villa (H)31.68 | Palace (A)31.27 | Everton (H)31.59 | Fulham (A)31.22 |
| Brentford | 1.58 | Sunderland (H)21.91 | Bournemouth (A)31.32 | Chelsea (H)41.68 | Aston Villa (A)41.23 | Liverpool (H)41.70 | Hull (A)21.63 | Forest (H)31.89 | Brighton (A)31.12 |
| Brighton | 1.51 | Leeds (H)21.74 | Coventry (A)21.76 | Arsenal (H)41.05 | Sunderland (A)31.52 | Palace (H)31.75 | Liverpool (A)41.24 | Man City (A)51.04 | Brentford (H)31.66 |
| Aston Villa | 1.50 | Hull (A)21.65 | Forest (H)31.68 | Tottenham (A)31.35 | Brentford (H)31.54 | Newcastle (A)31.47 | Man City (H)41.29 | Fulham (H)21.84 | Man United (A)41.42 |
| Tottenham | 1.48 | Forest (A)31.27 | Everton (H)31.43 | Aston Villa (H)31.40 | Man United (A)41.47 | Coventry (H)22.08 | Chelsea (A)41.25 | Palace (H)31.49 | Leeds (A)31.34 |
| Bournemouth | 1.44 | Newcastle (A)31.53 | Brentford (H)31.40 | Liverpool (H)41.39 | Chelsea (A)41.23 | Sunderland (H)21.63 | Man United (A)41.45 | Leeds (H)21.59 | Ipswich (A)21.79 |
| Fulham | 1.39 | Palace (H)31.48 | Liverpool (A)40.92 | Man United (H)41.35 | Ipswich (A)21.33 | Hull (H)21.99 | Coventry (A)21.27 | Aston Villa (A)40.95 | Newcastle (H)21.33 |
| Forest | 1.35 | Tottenham (H)31.22 | Aston Villa (A)41.22 | Coventry (H)21.77 | Palace (A)31.41 | Arsenal (H)40.76 | Ipswich (A)21.75 | Brentford (A)31.09 | Man City (H)41.01 |
| Everton | 1.28 | Man United (H)41.29 | Tottenham (A)31.10 | Ipswich (H)21.78 | Hull (A)21.45 | Chelsea (H)41.34 | Arsenal (A)50.73 | Newcastle (A)31.30 | Coventry (H)22.07 |
| Palace | 1.23 | Fulham (A)31.20 | Ipswich (H)21.58 | Leeds (A)31.11 | Forest (H)31.35 | Brighton (A)30.97 | Newcastle (H)21.15 | Tottenham (A)31.17 | Liverpool (H)41.21 |
| Leeds | 1.18 | Brighton (A)31.03 | Newcastle (H)21.29 | Palace (H)31.51 | Arsenal (A)50.70 | Man United (H)41.33 | Sunderland (A)31.19 | Bournemouth (A)31.10 | Tottenham (H)31.34 |
| Ipswich | 1.07 | Liverpool (H)41.12 | Palace (A)31.03 | Everton (A)31.02 | Fulham (H)21.36 | Man City (A)50.70 | Forest (H)31.22 | Hull (A)21.21 | Bournemouth (H)31.30 |
| Hull | 0.96 | Aston Villa (H)31.06 | Chelsea (A)40.80 | Newcastle (A)30.97 | Everton (H)31.01 | Fulham (A)30.88 | Brentford (H)31.08 | Ipswich (H)21.37 | Arsenal (A)50.54 |
| Sunderland | 0.95 | Brentford (A)30.86 | Arsenal (H)40.74 | Man City (A)50.71 | Brighton (H)21.14 | Bournemouth (A)30.97 | Leeds (H)21.30 | Coventry (A)21.25 | Chelsea (H)41.12 |
| Coventry | 0.94 | Man City (A)50.68 | Brighton (H)21.04 | Forest (A)30.86 | Newcastle (H)20.94 | Tottenham (A)30.87 | Fulham (H)21.24 | Sunderland (H)21.17 | Everton (A)30.90 |
FPL’s 1–5 difficulty next to the model’s own view of the same fixture on the same scale. Gaps of two or more are listed here and ringed in the grids above — these are the fixtures where planning by FDR alone is most likely to mislead.
| GW | Fixture | Lens | FPL says | Model says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW3 | Arsenal v Chelsea (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 4 | 1 (36% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Arsenal v Chelsea (H) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (1.90 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW4 | Man City v Man United (A) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (1.90 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW4 | Coventry v Brighton (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (1.04 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW6 | Coventry v Newcastle (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (0.94 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW9 | Chelsea v Man United (H) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (1.80 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Bournemouth v Newcastle (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (15% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Sunderland v Brentford (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (15% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Newcastle v Bournemouth (H) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 1 (1.90 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Sunderland v Brentford (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (0.86 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Leeds v Brighton (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (1.03 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW3 | Hull v Aston Villa (H) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (1.06 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |